TOKYO, (AFP) - Rising oil prices are unlikely to deal a major blow to global economic growth although the trend may seem "uncomfortable," a researcher with the International Monetary Fund says.
The recent economic soft patch in the global economy was "desirable" to allow adjustments following a high growth period from late last year through to early this year, said David Robinson, IMF deputy director of research.
"While the effects of rising oil prices are uncomfortable, it's so far manageable. It's going to slow the global economy but it's not going to stall it," Robinson told reporters.
This year will be "a banner year for global growth," he added.
The IMF projects the world economy will grow five percent, a 30-year high, this year before cooling off to 4.3 percent in 2005.
The outlook for oil is uncertain but market indications are they could fall to around 35 dollars in the next few years and that level is "not enough to change our forecasts" of solid global growth, Robinson said.
"Looking forward, our assessment is that the soft patch will only be a soft patch, not a sink hole," he said.
Solid corporate profits in the United States should be followed by an upturn in investment there, driving the global economy ahead as a result, he said, although he added that weak US jobs data could mean slower consumption.
Japan also is forecast to continue growth, albeit at a slower 2.3 percent next year, down from an estimated 4.4 percent, the best among the Group of Seven industrial economies.
"This recovery is not like the recoveries we have seen in the (1990s). This is more broadly based," Robinson said.
"Corporate and bank restructurings have moved forward," he said, adding that those sectors have become "more resilient to shocks" such as rising oil prices.