Australia's Howard must win to keep US-led Iraq coalition intact

WASHINGTON, (AFP) - Australia's Prime Minister John Howard has to win upcoming elections to prevent a pullout by Canberra from the US-led coalition in Iraq.
Although the Iraq war has not emerged as the central question in the elections, the outcome of the October 9 polls will be significant to Bush, who is determined to keep the Iraq coalition together following the abrupt departures of troops from Spain and the Philippines.
Australian opposition Labor Party leader Mark Latham has vowed to bring the 850 Australian troops home from Iraq by Christmas if he wins the tightly contested elections despite Bush's warning that this would be disastrous.
"It would be a disastrous decision for the leader of a great country like Australia to say that 'we're pulling out,'" Bush said with his staunch ally Howard by his side during his Washington visit in June.
"It would embolden the enemy," Bush said. "It would dispirit those who love freedom in Iraq. It would say that the Australian government doesn't see the hope of a free and democratic society leading to a peaceful world."
The conservative government of Howard, who is seeking a fourth term in office, was among the first to deploy troops to the US-led campaign to oust Saddam Hussein in early 2003.
Howard's decision went against public opinion in Australia, where 75 percent of the people were reportedly opposed to the war then, and he subsequently suffered a "no confidence" vote in the Australian Senate.
If Howard loses, he would be the second senior leader from the coalition to be thrown out of polls since the Iraqi invasion, following the March ouster of Jose Maria Aznar's conservative government in Spain.
It was voted out due to a backlash from a terrorist attack in Madrid that killed hundreds of people and linked to Spain's involvement in Iraq.
The government change prompted a withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq.
The Australian scenario is different, however.
Australia's participation in Iraq is seen domestically more through its alliance with the United States as a whole rather than whether intervention in Iraq was justified, analysts say.
There have been few Australian casualties in Iraq and the Howard administration has not suffered the same opinion poll declines as seen by Bush or another of his close allies, British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
In fact, many Australians reportedly favor Howard's hardline stance against terrorism, reinforced by last month's deadly terrorist blast at the Australian embassy in Indonesia's capital.
Yet, the fact remains that a Howard loss in the Australian election would see the exit of Australian troops from the coalition in Iraq at a crucial juncture -- just before landmark elections in the insurgency-wracked country.
The troop departure may even dampen Bush's own prospects in the US presidential elections on November 2, where Iraq is a central issue.
"Even if Iraq is not the deciding issue in the Australian elections, it could be perceived as such, and there could be tremors (if Howard loses)," said Derek Mitchell, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
"It clearly would give heart to Democrats in the United States -- first of all they can make the case that our allies in the 'coalition of the willing' are losing in the elections, which demonstrates an essential mistrust of their following of the United States," he said.
Senator John Kerry, Bush's rival for the White House, would not hesitate to capitalize on it.
"I am sure if that theme takes hold, if Kerry thinks it is a winning theme, he will pick up the issue of Blair and use Howard as another data point to highlight particularly the US-UK relationship," Mitchell said.
"It may have more impact just highlighting even further that the Anglo alliance is weakening. Bush is simply the last pillar in the Anglo-US alliance and suggest we need a change," he said.
Blair is facing strong criticism in Britain ahead of elections next year.
But Dana Dillon, senior policy analyst at the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, said he would be "very surprised" if a victorious Australian Labor Party pulled out troops from Iraq despite its pledge to the electorate.
"If it does happen, however, both sides will do their best to reduce the risk of damaging the extremely important Australian-US alliance," he said.
Australia has fought alongside the United States in two World Wars, in Korea and Vietnam and, more recently, in the Gulf and Somalia.