BRUSSELS, Sept 30 (AFP) - Turkey`s EU entry should be good news if well managed, although Ankara may have to wait until "well into the next decade" to join, according to a European Commission study seen by AFP Thursday.
The study, set to be approved alongside a crucial report next week on Turkey`s hopes for joining the European Union, said Turkey`s EU accession would be positive, while stressing the diplomatic advantages.
"Accession of Turkey to the Union would be challenging both for the EU and Turkey. If well managed, it would offer important opportunities for both," said the study.
"The necessary preparations for accession will last well into the next decade. The EU will evolve over this period and Turkey should change even more radically," it said.
The Commission, the EU`s executive arm, is widely expected to recommend in a report published on October 6 that the EU start membership negotiations with Turkey.
The report will form the basis for a final decision to be made by EU leaders at a mid-December summit on whether to give the green light for talks with Ankara.
"The economic impact of Turkey`s accession to the EU would be positive but relatively small, both due to the modest size of the Turkish economy and to the degree of economic integration already existing before accession," it said.
Meanwhile it added that "with its large military expenditure and manpower, (Turkey) has the material capacity to make a significant contribution to the EU security and defence policy.
"Turkey being a member would give the Union greater weight in regional and world affairs," it said, but also noted that: "It could also make decision-making, especially under unanimity, more complicated."
The study said that Turkey`s EU accession will be different from the previous enlargements because of the combined impact of Turkey`s population, size, geographical location, economic, security and military potential.
"Turkey`s at present going through a process of radical change including rapid evolution of mentalities. It is in the interest of all that the current transformation process continues," it says.
It added that Turkey could be an important model of a Muslim majority country adhering to such fundamental principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedom and the rule of law."
"The successful inclusion of Turkey in the European integration process would give clear evidence to the Muslim world that their religious beliefs are compatible with EU`s values," it said.
The cost of Turkey`s accession will be "clearly substantial," the study, said. In a "purely hypothetical" scenario of Turkey joining in 2025 the price tag would be from 22.1-33.5 billion euros, it said.
Other key points in the study include:
- on the Middle East, "as an ally of the United States, Turkey could play a bridging role in the discussion on reform and modernization in the Middle East area."
- management of EU`s long new external border would constitute an important policy challenge and require significant investment.
Turkey`s EU hopes were brought back on track at the weekend, when the Turkish parliament passed a reformed penal code demanded by the EU if it is to win a green light from Brussels.
EU enlargement commissioner said after those reforms were agreed that there were "no more obstacles on the table" to Turkey`s EU hopes.