ANKARA, Sept 30 (AFP) - Failure by the European Union to set a date for membership talks with Ankara could harm ties with the EU, leave Turkey torn between its western ideals and its eastern legacy -- and create political problems for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, analysts say.
"For Turkey, the European Union is a vision of modernization, deeply rooted in history," said Sami Kohen, the respected foreign affairs commentator of the daily Milliyet. "If the Union does not give Ankara what it wants, it will mean disillusionment -- and a shock for the government and the public.
"If the EU categorically rejects Turkey, there will be a break in bilateral ties because Turkey will have nothing else to look forward to," he said. "If the EU says Turkey has earned the right to start membership talks but fails to set a precise date, there would still be problems, but not a collapse in ties."
Eventual EU membership is the number one goal -- and, according to some analysts, the raison d'etre -- of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), which emerged from a banned Islamist movement but now says it has completely disawoved its past policies.
Since it came to power two years ago, the AKP has enacted a set of impressive democracy reforms to bring the country to European standards, attracting strong support from wide sections of society.
As the clock ticks toward October 6 and a crucial European Commission report on Turkey's progress, the government has made clear that it expects nothing less than a firm date from EU leaders when they meet on December 17 to decide on whether this country has a future in their Union.
A positive decision would be a crowning point in Ankara's 40-year effort to join Europe.
A negative one would deepen an identity crisis in a country that has been waiting at Europe's doorstep for decades and whose strictly secular system is often viewed with suspicion by fellow Muslim states, said Dogu Ergil, a professor of political sciences.
"Turks still have a number of questions they need to answer concerning their identity," he said. "Are they urban or rural, are they western or eastern, are they Muslim or secular?
"If the EU sets a date, it would lead to psychological relief," assuring Turks that they are part of the western world, Ergil added.
An EU "No" could also result in foreign policy changes for Turkey and send it looking for alliances in other parts of the world, said Cigdem Nas of Marmara University's European Community Institute.
"If Turkey sees that EU membership will not happen in the short run, it could start seeing itself as more of a regional actor," she said. "It could try to get closer to the Middle East, or seek better ties with countries such as Russia and Iran."
Turkish leaders argue that a rebuff by the EU would not mean the end of the world and the country would have other alternatives -- even ranking officers of the militantly secular army have talked of developing ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
But Nas said such projects were unrealistic.
"None of these countries are alternatives to the EU, which is the sole example in the world of a political and economic grouping," she said.
On the domestic front, Erdogan could find himself facing tough times in the absence of a date for the talks.
"If the AKP has the EU wind taken out of its sails, it will lose the political direction it has monopolized as a national target, as well as its superiority over political rivals," Ergil said.
Another political scientist, Professor Ilter Turan, sees a possible attack on Erdogan and his government by anti-EU circles in Turkey, who would clamor "We said so," if there is no date for the talks.
"Erdogan would have no answer to their arguments and his political career could suffer," Turan said. "He could face challenges within the AKP from those who want to change the party leadership."