BY ERDAL SAFAK
SABAH- The fiercest debates on Turkey’s European Union membership bid are taking place in France, due to the split within both its left-wing and right-wing parties. French daily Le Figaro conducted a public opinion survey to see how this confusion is reflected in the public. It found that while 56% of the French people say they are against Turkey’s EU membership, 36% support it.
I think that this isn’t a bad result, in three respects: Firstly, the percentage of those opposed to Turkey’s membership is falling. A survey this June found 61% of the French opposed to Turkey’s membership, with 31% supporting it. Furthermore, over the last three years opposition to Turkey’s membership has never fallen below 58%, until now. Secondly, the majority of those who are against Turkey’s membership have rightist tendencies. However, the last three elections in France showed the majority in France moving to the left wing. The leftist base is closer to supporting Turkey’s membership. Thirdly, 63% of those surveyed stated that they would support Turkey’s membership in the future. This shows that the ranks of our supporters will swell at the end of negotiation talks. This is an important detail.
French Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, who is set to take over the governing Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) next month, requested that Turkey’s membership should be subject to a referendum in France, which seems to be a development against Turkey, but actually is not. Sarkozy wants the referendum to be held after the end of the negotiation process – that is, in about 2015. In this way, he is trying to prevent a referendum on the EU constitution set for next year from turning into a vote on Turkey’s membership and therefore being rejected. There is a real risk that Turkey could become a central issue in the campaign over the constitutional referendum. The constitution’s rejection can’t be prevented if it isn’t made clear that Turkey won’t become a member ‘right away.’ This result would create a great crisis in the Union.
To summarize, the EU public and politicians will be discussing Turkey not just until the December summit, but through next year and the years to come.