Warlords the real threat to Afghan vote, rights group says

KABUL (AFP) - Gun-wielding militia commanders seeking to intimidate voters pose a far greater threat to Afghanistan's first presidential election than Taliban-led militants, a report by Human Rights Watch said.
Hours after US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad proclaimed Afghanistan had "broken the back" of warlords and was making progress in disarming regional militias, the New York-based rights watchdog released a report detailing voter intimidation by militia commanders before the October 9 poll.
"In most parts of the country Afghans told Human Rights Watch that they are primarily afraid of the local factional leaders and military commanders -- not the Taliban insurgency," said the rights group report, entitled 'The Rule of the Gun.'
It found that local militia commanders who came to power after the late 2001 ousting of the hardline Taliban rulers have brutally reinforced their rule.
Regional militias have used "force, threats and corruption to stifle legitimate political activity and dominate the election process", it said.
A nationwide UN-backed disarmament program had largely failed because local commanders in many regions were still able to access their former arsenals, said John Sifton, the report's author.
"In Zabul and Kunar, the Taliban are still a real threat but countrywide many Afghans think of warlords as the primary obstacle to democracy and human rights," he told AFP.
Since the 18,200 US-led troops and 8,000 NATO-led peacekeepers are inadequate for guarding 25,000 polling sites, most of the security on voting day will be provided by police with links with local commanders.
"Because of the inadequate provision of international forces, current security plans for the presidential election include the use of deputised warlord or factional forces to guard polling stations -- the very people Afghans say they're most afraid of," the report said.
"Voters in many rural areas have already been told by warlords and regional commanders how to vote and, given the general political repression and unfamiliarity with democratic processes, are likely to obey."
International Crisis Group analyst Vikram Parekh said the secrecy of the ballot could be compromised.
"People guarding the polling sites will be the people loyal to the local commander. This is the first experience with what is supposed to be a secret ballot and that will not boost confidence in the security arrangements," Parekh told AFP.
The lack of international monitoring -- around 150 monitors for 25,000 polling sites -- could also compromise ballot secrecy, the report warned.
It also challenged the number of people who had registered to vote, saying the official figure of 10.5 million reflected widespread fraud rather than enthusiasm for democracy.
"Election officials believe the real figure is between five and seven million and the 10 million figure is not just inaccurate but vastly inflated," Sifton said.
His report cited examples of people registering for multiple cards in the hope of getting benefits or food rations.
"Democracy's substance -- voters and candidates taking part in an electoral process free of violence and threats, against a backdrop of an independent judiciary, and a free press -- is as elusive as ever," the report found.
Among the 18 candidates are Uzbek warlord General Abdul Rashid Dostam and Mohammed Mohaqeq, both of whom command powerful regional militias.
Although election authorities received numerous complaints about their control of large militias, they were not disqualified from standing.
"If the electoral commission sitting in Kabul would not disqualify these people, how can we expect an ordinary Afghan voter not to be intimidated?" said Andrew Wilder, director of the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit.
Human Rights Watch said incumbent President Hamid Karzai, favourite to win, will face a crisis of legitimacy if he ends up forming a government with regional military strongmen.
"This continuing military factionalism...could spark a new civil conflict in Afghanistan, and put at risk all of the gains and opportunities presented by the US-led ouster of the Taliban in 2001," it concluded.