BRUSSELS, Sept 26 (AFP) - The European Commission is set to give a green light next week to Turkey's hopes of joining the EU, after Ankara's hopes were wrenched back on track following a week of tension, insiders said this weekend.
And with Brussels' view widely seen as positive, attention is already moving to a December summit where the EU will decide whether to start entry talks with Ankara -- an increasingly realistic prospect despite some fierce opposition.
But the devil may be in the detail of caveats and criticism contained in the long-awaited report by the European Union's executive, observers said 10 days ahead of the crunch document's publication on October 6.
Critics argue that Turkey is simply too different culturally, economically and in sheer terms of population to be integrated anytime soon into the EU, which already staged its biggest expansion ever this year to 25 states.
But the Commission's backing for Turkey is seen as all but certain, after EU enlargement chief Guenter Verheugen said last week that for him there were "no more obstacles on the table" to Ankara's hopes of starting EU talks.
That comment came after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan assured the EU official that he would rush through a new penal code, seen as crucial by the EU, at an extraordinary session of parliament in Ankara on Sunday.
In particular he pledged that a planned amendment which would criminalize adultery -- which last week triggered blunt warnings from Brussels -- was not on the agenda for Sunday's talks.
The Turkish reassurances mean the Commission's backing for Ankara is virtually guaranteed.
"They will probably say progress has been sufficiently impressive for us to recommend the opening of negotiations," said Michael Emerson of the Centre for European Policy Studies, himself a former EU ambassador.
But the report is also widely expected to include detailed critiques of problematic areas including the use of torture and treatment of ethnic minorities.
The political temperature has risen sharply in the run-up to the Brussels report and the December EU summit.
Critics declaring their hand have included members of the Commission itself: internal market chief Frits Bolkestein notably warned Turkey's accession could mean that Europe's 17th century repulsion of the Ottoman Empire was "in vain."
EU farm commissioner Franz Fischler warned that the EU should have a "plan B," and warned bluntly that: "There remain doubts as to Turkey's long-term secular and democratic credentials."
Erdogan dismissed such suggestions during his trip to Brussels last week.
"Yes we have a different religion," he told reporters. "But multiculturalism ... is the understanding which underpins the EU. The EU is not a religious club."
Erdogan was visibly pleased with the result of his talks in Brussels last week, saying they laid a "positive foundation" for next week's report and raising hopes for the mid-December EU summit.
Experts say that, while the Commission assessment will be closely read, the focus is already on the December gathering of EU leaders.
But here again, despite opposition from one or two countries -- notably Austria -- and significant public skepticism in states like France and Germany, the feeling is that ultimately EU leaders will give their green light.
"For domestic political ... reasons the (summit) will conclude with some language that will contain qualifications. But I doubt very much if this is going to mean anything more," said Emerson.
"Of course the opening of negotiations does not prejudge the conclusion of the negotiations ... It is in any case to be expected that Turkey will have to carry on transforming itself for a long time, probably a decade," he added.