LONDON, Sept 24 (AFP) - A daring special forces rescue mission to pluck British hostage Kenneth Bigley from the hands of his Iraqi captors is militarily feasible but most likely too risky to attempt, experts said Friday.
Additionally, according to one analyst who has spoken to senior defence officials, the military has very little intelligence about the kidnappers with which to even plan a mission.
Bigley, 62, is considered in extreme danger from the Tawhid wal Jihad (Unity and Holy War) group which has held him for eight days and has already beheaded two of his co-hostages, both Americans.
Bigley's family have made a series of impassioned appeals to the group to release him, including the distribution of 50,000 Arabic-language leaflets in the Baghdad suburb where he was seized.
According to defence experts, the notion of a raid by elite British special forces such as the Special Air Service (SAS) would almost certainly have been considered, but it would be fraught with peril.
"I'm sure it is an option. If I was in the government I would consider all options. But I don't know if it is necessarily the number one option," said Paul Beaver, a respected independent military analyst.
Such a move would be dependent on troops knowing the exact conditions under which Bigley was being held, so they could "shoot dead the hostage-takers within seconds", Beaver noted.
The chances of success were not insurmountable, but carried a grave risk of the operation going badly wrong.
"Based on what we know, I would say (there is a) slightly more than 60 per cent, about 60-70 per cent, chance to succeed, but not sufficient if I were the prime minister to order it," Beaver said.
Defence analyst Francis Tusa said he had talked to a senior Ministry of Defence official who said there was "zero intelligence on the kidnappers".
"He did say that there were special forces who could be used if intelligence became available, but he was not exactly exuding confidence," said Tusa, who publishes a specialist newsletter, Defence Analysis.
The SAS has a good reputation for rescuing hostages, most notably a dramatic raid in 1980 on the Iranian embassy in London when they saved 19 people held by armed militants.
Nonetheless, freeing Bigley might simply be too difficult, said retired major Charles Heyman, a senior defense analyst for the Jane's Consulting Group who admits to having had "experience" in hostage-taking events.
While a rescue had almost certainly been considered, "it's probably the last resort, and the chances of a successful hostage attempt, even if they knew where he was being held, is probably remote," he said.
"It's quite possible he's attached to a booby trap, or he's got a guard on him 24 hours a day, something like that," he noted.
A rescue bid would have its temptations, however, added Thomas Withington from the Centre for Defence Studies at London University's King's College.
"To be honest, I think it would be an incredibly risky strategy, incredibly dangerous, but it would send out an incredibly powerful message if it is a success," he said.
"The SAS don't mess around... they don't take any prisoners.
"If they do it, nobody apart from the hostage himself will actually be left alive... the argument will be there is no point arresting these guys."