BY CENGIZ CANDAR
RADIKAL - I met with former Finnish President Marti Ahtisaari, the winner of last year's Nobel Peace Prize, this week. He said the first thing needed in Gaza is a cease-fire, and he praised Turkey's role in mediating between Hamas and Egypt as positive. Ahtisaari said that since Hamas is generally shunned, our meetings with Hamas are useful in helping to reach a cease-fire as soon as possible.
Ahtiraari, an eminent international political figure, was supposed to be in Ankara yesterday to meet with President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Though Erdogan would be pleased with his view of Turkey's role, this coincides with Israel's attacks reaching a new violent crescendo, starting to hit the Gaza city center with artillery and Israeli tanks entering parts of the city. Israeli gunfire also hit a hospital where 500 people were taking shelter and offices of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). After UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon lashed out at Israel, Defense Minister Ehud Barak joined into a meeting in Tel Aviv between Ban and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, apologizing to Ban and promising that such attacks wouldn't happen again.
But what's done is done. Since the beginning of Israeli attacks in Gaza, the death toll has exceeded 1,000. As a proportion of Turkey's population, this would mean deaths of more than 50,000 over three weeks, one-third of them women and children. Gaza looks like a terrible earthquake hit it. So when will this violence and blood bath end? Considering how Israel initiated its most violent attack against Gaza yesterday and even the UN secretary-general lost his temper, a cease-fire may be close at hand. Generally, the most violent moments of a war occur just before a cease-fire or peace talks. For example, Israel stepped up its attacks in south Lebanon in the summer of 2006 just before a cease-fire.
There will be cease-fire in Gaza soon, one based on the framework of UN Security Council Resolution 1816. Parallels will be probably be drawn between the Gaza cease-fire and UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 34-day war in Lebanon. This can seen in the Israeli press. Haaretz daily, which has tended to favor a cease-fire, reported yesterday that the first important signs of the breaking of Hamas emerged on Wednesday, after 19 days of conflict and a death toll of more than 1,000, and that Hamas representatives meeting in Egypt stated that they had accepted Egypt's proposal of cease-fire in principle. The paper also reported that Egypt's proposal was actually bad for Hamas, because it doesn't allow Hamas to declare a political victory to the Palestinian public, that the bloodshed was worth it.
Hamas leaders haven't officially declared that they accepted Egypt's proposal. But Egypt's proposal is the only initiative now. Turkey has been mediating for Hamas in Egypt. As circles near Hamas stated yesterday that Turkey's position was close to Egypt, we believe Hamas could bargain for some more time on the details to save face and then accept Egypt's proposal, leading to a cease-fire within a couple of days.
What will we see after Israel ends its Gaza attacks? Firstly, we'll see a ruined Gaza in which over 1,000 people have died. The trauma of this war will continue for a long time. Obviously, Gaza's hatred of Israel will be deeper and more violent. So will Fatah, led by Mahmoud Abbas, or the Palestinian administration benefit from this? They are among the victims of Israel in the Gaza war. They had been ahead of Hamas in opinion polls, but now many see them as collaborators with Israel, so Hamas' loss doesn't necessarily mean Fatah's gain. There are even signs that Israel, which doesn't want to reach a consensus or make concessions in the Middle East, cynically preferred Hamas over the Palestinian administration and initiated this war with this in mind. Will the deep fissure between Fatah and Hamas grow in the days to come, or will the wounds be healed? We don't know, but clearly the ruin in Gaza will also expose the ruin of Palestinian politics. Unfortunately, Palestine's suffering will continue. We'll know more about exactly how long after Barack Obama moves into the White House."