BY SERVET YILDIRIM
SABAH- How could our relations with the International Monetary Fund be affected if Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s meetings in Brussels don’t yield positive results and our problems with the European Union aren’t overcome? One can guess that this question was asked during the recent discussions between the IMF and Ankara. Because if our accession talks are delayed, then the economic program and financial support from the IMF will also change. Some scenarios should be considered in preparing the program. One is that we get a date for accession talks in December and start the process in mid 2005. Alternately, our strained relations with the EU could escalate and our date for talks could be postponed. The path of the two scenarios differs. If everything goes well (that is, if Turkey gets a date for talks), then rising foreign investment is expected bin addition to financial aid from the EU in 2005-07. It’s also clear that if Ankara enters the membership process, then it will gain more leverage in loans.
However, if the adultery crisis isn’t overcome, then a surge in foreign investment will remain a dream. In this situation, the IMF would demand a higher primary surplus from Turkey. The Fund should have been signaled this to Turkey.
The government has little room to maneuver in the adultery crisis. The foreign loans we have to pay in the consolidated budget over the next three years total $45 billion. Even if we can get a $10-12 billion loan from the IMF (under the most optimistic scenario), much would still remain. Even if we have a serious structural program, we couldn’t pay the debt without another loan. Thus these necessities are limiting the government’s flexibility and its chance to defy the EU and make the adultery debate an internal matter rather then a problem within the ruling party. I believe that the IMF is closely following developments in the adultery debate.