Arafat Assured Of Election Victory But Fatah Likely To Lose Out: Analysts

JERUSALEM, Sept 13 (AFP) - Yasser Arafat's re-election in polls planned for early next year looks almost certain, despite the veteran Palestinian leader's isolation by both Israel and the Americans, but his mainstream Fatah party will probably be hurt over failings in the Palestinian Authority, analysts said.
Despite increasing criticism over his autocratic methods and widespread corruption, Arafat appears to have no rival in sight to challenge his position as leader of the Palestinian struggle for the past 40 years.
By contrast, his ruling Fatah party, which has long held the dominant position in parliament and other government bodies, was likely to pay a heavy price for the failures of the Palestinian Authority (PA). It looks set to lose ground to other groups, notably Hamas, if the radical Islamic movement should decide to participate in the elections.
"Arafat is not likely to encounter problems, unlike Fatah," said political analyst Zakaria al-Qaq, saying the ageing leader was certain to win reelection.
In the eyes of the public, Fatah is responsible for all the PA's failings since it was set up in 1994 after the signing of the Oslo Accords, which brought about Palestinian autonomy, he said.
"The PA and Fatah have not carried out their main duty: protecting the Palestinians from Israeli attacks and from corruption," Qaq said. "They have not even been capable of protecting themselves."
Hamas boycotted the first Palestinian elections in 1996, but could carve out a major place for itself if it fields candidates this time around, he said.
"If Hamas takes part in the elections, it could become a key player on the political scene and would have its say in the decision-making process," he said.
Gaza-based analyst Hassan al-Kashef has no doubt that Hamas will participate and will enter into government, which was likely to bring about a change to the movement's strategy.
Hamas "will change its tune when it enters parliament and will put limits on its armed struggle" against Israel, he said.
The election of a new parliament and the renewal of Arafat's mandate could help restart the peace process, which has largely ground to a halt since the virtual still birth of the internationally drafted peace roadmap a little over a year ago.
With Arafat's re-election, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon "will no longer be able to say there is no Palestinian partner with whom to negotiate," Kahef said.
Mustafa Barghuti, secretary general of the Palestinian National Initiative, a movement which works for reform and the strengthening of democracy, said the polls "will allow the PA to get out of the deep crisis it is going through".
"Elections are necessary because they offer a chance for change and for reforms to be carried out," he said.
He spoke positively of Hamas' participation in the elections, saying the movement would be "obliged to respect the political line (of the PA) if it is integrated into the political system.
"If the elections are fair, Fatah is likely to lose some of its seats due to the (bad) performance of the PA," he concluded.