by Taieb Mahjoub
DUBAI, Sept 9 (AFP) - Al-Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri appeared in a video broadcast Thursday on the eve of the third anniversary of September 11, vowing that defeat for US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan was a matter of time.
And he warned that Americans would not be safe while their government "commits crimes against Muslims in Iraq and Afghanistan and Palestine," according to Al-Jazeera television, which screened the tape late Thursday.
"The American defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan has become just a question of time, God willing," the fugitive Egyptian cleric said on the tape.
"In the two countries, the Americans are between two fires: if they remain there they will bleed to death, and if they withdraw they will have lost everything."
Wearing a white turban and with an assault rifle at his side, Osama bin Laden`s right-hand man said armed Islamists he described as Al-Qaeda`s mujahedeen had foiled US forces in Iraq and left them hiding in the trenches in Afghanistan.
US President George W. Bush sent in troops to Afghanistan to hunt down bin Laden and his operatives in his self-declared "war on terrorism" after the September 11, 2001 attacks and then invaded Iraq in March last year.
Zawahiri -- an eye surgeon by training who now has a 25 million dollar US bounty on his head -- was last shown in a video broadcast almost the same time a year ago walking with bin Laden in a green mountainous area.
CIA analysts have begun studying the latest videotape to try to determine when it was made and whether it contains any hidden messages, a US intelligence official said.
Al-Jazeera, which often receives messages from militant groups including Al-Qaeda, gave no information about the latest recording or how it came into the station`s possession.
"In Iraq, the mujahedeen foiled the American plan after the interim government showed such weakness," said the 53-year-old Zawahiri, regarded by the United States as the terror group`s ideologue and main strategist.
He claimed that Al-Qaeda`s mujahedeen were in control of "the entire east and south of Afghanistan" with the support of the people.
"The Americans are dug into their trenches and refuse to come out to face the mujahedeen, despite their provocations by bombing and besieging them."
He said the Americans and other foreign troops simply "defend themselves with air raids."
"In Kabul, the Americans and the peacekeeping forces are the target of rocket attacks by the mujahedeen are constantly in fear of martyr (suicide) operations," Zawahiri added.
According to Al-Jazeera, which said it did not screen the entire tape, Zawahiri warns the Americans that "the era of security is over."
"They will no longer be safe while their government does not stop committing its crimes against Muslims in Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine."
Earlier Thursday, at least three rockets were fired at the Afghan capital, an International Security Assistance Force spokesman said, with witnesses saying at least one person was wounded.
The attacks came two days after campaigning began for next month`s landmark presidential election in Afghanistan.
In neighbouring Pakistan, security forces smashed a suspected Al-Qaeda training camp Thursday in a remote tribal area near the Afghan border, killing some 50 militant fighters, the military said.
The US intelligence official said that while there was little doubt that the man on the tape was Zawahiri, analysts would look for references that might date when the video was made and examine it for hidden messages.
Al-Qaeda has been suspected of secretly conveying messages about operations to its followers through video and audio tapes aired on television.
Since September 11, 2001 Zawahiri has surfaced occasionally in taped messages calling for attacks on the United States -- most recently on February 24 in messages on Arabic television stations.