by Dmitry Zaks
MOSCOW, Sept 1 (AFP) - Russia is facing a protracted war with an "invisible enemy" bent on forcing it out of Chechnya, shattering the nation's confidence but not the resolve of its leaders to fight on in the war-torn republic, analysts said Wednesday.
As Russians watched in horror while a school on the edge of Chechnya was taken hostage by men and women dressed in black, some with explosives strapped around their waists, President Vladimir Putin dashed back to Moscow to handle the fourth national crisis in a week.
It would seem to put a massive dent in his tough-guy image, one that brought him to power on a vow to bring the country out of its post-Soviet mayhem. But analysts said the public will only clutch closer to the Russian leader for protection, not blame him for policy mistakes.
The exit strategy from the violence looks to be more violence.
Speaking frankly, his defense minister admitted before the nation that the country was facing new attacks, but that Moscow would fight its "invisible enemy" -- international terror networks operating through Chechnya and striking Russia.
"This, unfortunately, is far from the first and, I am afraid, not the last terrorist act. In fact, a war has been declared on us, where the foe is invisible and there is no front line," Sergei Ivanov said.
He was speaking about Tuesday's bombing in Moscow that killed nine people. Hours later, well over 100 people were taken hostage in a school in a Caucasus region that Putin has been unable to bring under control.
But analysts said Putin has successfully painted the campaign as a fight against international terror -- winning support from the West -- and that new attacks linked to rebels would only raise Russians' resolve to support his military campaign in the rebel region.
There will be no negotiations, no change in policy, and further war, analysts said.
"I think the government is in such a state that it can only push ahead with its line or put up its hands -- and everyone understands that they will not do the latter," said Yury Korgunyuk of the INDEM research institute.
"Terrorism is always a pretext for more rigid politics. But one cannot be more rigid than Putin in Chechnya," said independent military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer.
"In 1999, the explosions in Moscow enabled the government to launch a war in Chechnya and shaped Putin's popularity. How can he react now? The population now sides with the authorities."
Negotiations between the two sides have been held only once on an official level -- in a Moscow airport, behind closed doors, and ending with no agreement to hold new ones.
The Russian line was that the rebels must give up. The Chechen one was that the Russian troops get out of their republic. There was little room for compromise.
Some in the Russian media have come out with headlines screaming about a wave of terror attacks striking the country and trying to poke holes in Putin's image.
But state-controlled television has focused mostly on the rescue efforts, not images of Russians screaming in pain from the latest blast or parents crying over their children in the twin plane bombings last week that claimed 90 lives.
Analysts said Moscow would press on with its hard line, and that the rebels -- splintered in various clans -- would persist.
"There will be no change," said independent analyst Andrei Piontkovsky.
But he added: "It is a total failure of our policy in the Caucasus. Putin came to power in 1999 as a man who could ensure our security. And five years on, he has not known how to do it."