Iraq Set To Weigh Heavily On Australian Election Campaign

SYDNEY, Aug 29 (AFP) - Australian Prime Minister John Howard will fight for reelection on October 9 under the shadow of his unpopular, but unwavering support for the US-led war in Iraq.
With one of the world's strongest economies and surveys showing most Australians enjoying a feeling of prosperity they have not had for decades, Howard's Liberal-National coalition should, theoretically at least, be coasting to an easy fourth term victory.
Instead, Australia's most successful conservative leader for a generation is fighting for his survival against a brash younger rival, Labor leader Mark Latham, who has made Howard's credibility over Iraq a defining issue of the campaign.
Howard, 65, will be the second staunch member of US President George W. Bush's "coalition of the willing" after Spain's politically ill-fated conservative leader Jose Maria Aznar to fight an election overshadowed by seemingly endless bloody conflict in Iraq.
Aznar also had to contend with the March 11 train bomb attack in Madrid, which was linked to Spain's role in Iraq and played a central part in his election defeat three days later.
His eight years in power ended with a Socialist victory and the recall of Spanish troops from the war-torn country.
On the other side of the world, the 43-year-old Latham took his lead from Spain and immediately announced that if Labor won the upcoming election he would also withdraw Australia's 850-strong military contingent from Iraq.
The pledge earned Latham a sharp rebuke from Bush, whom he once famously described as "the most incompetent and dangerous US leader in living memory", and led to accusations that the Labor leader remained strongly anti-American.
He was also depicted as a threat to the Australia-US alliance which is overwhelmingly supported by Australians on both sides of the political divide.
Howard, a close friend of Bush and also, despite political differences, of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, has like Aznar, been in power for eight years.
But although a majority of voters opposed Australian involvement in the war, Howard has always had the support in his commitment to Iraq of a substantial minority of Australians, around 40 percent, according to opinion polls.
The indications are that an even larger percentage, while opposing the actual war, believe Australian troops should remain in Iraq until the country has been stabilised.
Latham has since partly backtracked, saying he would leave in place some personnel in security duties and crewing Australian ships and aircraft in the Gulf.
He also moved to heal the breach with the United States, bringing back to his front bench former Labor leader Kim Beazley to patch up the split with Washington, where Beazley is well liked.
But the symbolic withdrawal of Australian combat "diggers", even if only a few hundred, remains a major election issue and the one on which the eyes of US and British leaders will be most sharply focused ahead of their own imminent polls.
Another is the perception, recently reinforced by a group of 43 retired diplomats and military chiefs, that Howard was dishonest over the reason Australian troops were sent to Iraq in the first place -- that lies were told about weapons of mass destruction.
"There have been a whole lot of half truths, plausible denials and not accepting responsibility for some decisions, which have alienated many people," according to political analyst Elaine Thompson.
Thompson, a professor of politics at Sydney's University of New South Wales, told AFP that although Howard has a strong record in economic management, strength of the economy may not be benefitting the government to the extent that might be expected.
While governments are blamed for economic bad times, they do not necessarily win much praise for the economic good times, she said.
Latham has also tried to focus his campaign more on quality of life issues such health care, education and the role of parents -- rather than directly challenging Howard in key areas like tax reform and economic management.
Recent opinion polls suggest Latham's strategy is working, with Labor supported over the Liberal-National coalition by about 10 points.