BY SAMIL TAYYAR
STAR- A security agreement signed last month between the US and Iraq is a harbinger of things to come. As I`ve written before, it is an important agreement which will have a deep impact on Turkey, particularly on the concept of fighting terrorism and the Middle East policy. What made the agreement important was transferring control of the airspace from the US to the Iraqi government as of January 1 and setting a date for the withdrawal of US soldiers from Iraq by the end of 2011. This development created a historic opportunity for Turkey. The new era which started with the National Security Council`s (NSC) statement this April that it would be beneficial to continue consultations with all Iraqi groups and formations was strengthened by this pact.
The new policies, with groundwork laid by Interior Minister Besir Atalay, Prime Ministry Chief Advisor Ahmet Davutoglu and Special Envoy to Iraq Ambassador Murat Ozcelik, gained a new dimension with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan`s declaration about the establishment of a High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council signed in Baghdad this July. As stated by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Ankara yesterday, a tripartite mechanism is operating between the US, Iraq and Turkey on issues for the establishment of peace, Iraq`s political stability, and solving the PKK issue.
The problem has two dimensions for Turkey: Kirkuk, and the elimination of the PKK. There have recently been important developments about Kirkuk in line with Turkey`s policies. For example, a flawed referendum was delayed, and Turkey`s views were respected in terms of keeping Kirkuk attached to the central Iraqi government and giving its Turkmen more rights to speak. In addition, the Kirkuk Regional Assembly accepted the use of Turkmen as an official language with Roman letters, along with Arabic and Kurdish. There are also proposals for elimination of the PKK which Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani haven`t agreed on. They want Turkey to offer a general amnesty so that Kurds with Turkish citizenship who are in the mountains or living as refugees in the Mahmur camp can return and be provided with shelter and job opportunities, and can lay down their weapons.
According to UN data, 13,000 people live in Mahmur right now, and including those living in the mountains and other regions would swell this figure to 20,000. Right now, the problem lies in offering an amnesty to the PKK leadership. Kurdish leaders here have suggested that nearly 100 PKK officials be transferred to Europe or some other countries as political refugees. For these leaders, if a consensus is reached on this issue, the Iraqi administration will declare the PKK a terrorist group, ban all of its activities, and take part in joint operations with Turkey when needed. The US supports this project, whereas Turkey is now making a decision. The process is being conducted by the NSC, as the problem is a big one.
Another dimension of the problem is the PKK`s stance. The US wants to see some conclusion between Iraq and Turkey by next spring. The PKK declared a cease-fire, but in fact there are few PKK attacks during winter anyway. It`s generally thought that any solution package which wouldn`t release convicted PKK head Abdullah Ocalan from Imrali prison would be rejected by the PKK. Some people believe that if this happens, the US and Iraq might step up pressure on the PKK by cutting off the delivery of weapons and food to the Kandil mountains and freezing its assets in European countries and also perhaps extraditing certain PKK terrorists to Turkey.
Signs of this are already being seen. British police raided groups that help the PKK with financing and recruitment. Trucks bringing food and weapons to Kandil were seized. We`re entering a very difficult process. There will be certain groups in both Turkey and Iraq which oppose efforts to find a solution. Besides political reactions, those who have been using terrorism as a tool for extracting benefits for the last 24 years will try to hinder these efforts with bloody actions. Iraq`s Ergenekon has already started to work. The bloody attack on a restaurant on the Kirkuk-Erbil highway where representatives of the region met just two weeks ago should be seen in this light. At this time, we must work to establish pluralist democracy and social peace without harming Turkey`s unitary structure.