BY ERDAL SAFAK
SABAH- The International Crisis Group (ICG), a European Union think-tank whose views are taken very seriously, yesterday released a new report on Turkey. We give more weight to ICG reports than other EU documents, as the group represents the EU's 'wise men.' While other EU reports only offer evaluations, criticisms and suggestions for the country in question, the ICG shows the other side of the coin as well. Its reports are solution-oriented, and its suggestions are neutral and responsible.

The new report, 'Turkey and Europe: The Decisive Year Ahead,' falls in line with these principles. Along with its August 2007 report 'Turkey and Europe: The Way Ahead,' these documents show how things have gone awry over the past 16 months. The 2007 report struck a hopeful note, but now the alarm bells are ringing. By 'decisive year,' the ICG means 2009. The reason for alarm is the danger Turkey's EU bid could end. According to the report, 'Turkey is entering a critical year, in which its prospects for European Union membership are at make or break stage.'

Of course Turkey is also responsible for the emergence of this danger, through stalled reforms, lack of progress on the Kurdish issue and expanding religious freedoms, suspending work on a new constitution, etc. But as the ICG stresses, the EU is also responsible for this deadlock, through failing to voice the membership goal, blocking many negotiation chapters, not encouraging reforms, lack of cooperation in the fight against the terrorist PKK, etc. 'The dangers to Turkey of this loss of EU-bound momentum are already evident,' stresses the report, and adds: 'For Europe, the cost would be longer term.' The ICG suggested the following to the EU in August 2007, just after Turkey entered a very hopeful period (after general elections in July): 'Europeans who attack the prospect of Turkish membership of the EU underestimate the damage they do to European interests.' The report added, 'On the European side, it is a matter of full, serious and continuing engagement in the accession process and not excluding the possibility of Turkey's ultimate membership if there is full compliance with EU norms.' It recommended the following: ' For leaders of countries and opinion-makers in favour of Turkey's accession, speak up in European forums, doing more to explain the mutual benefits that will flow from the accession process and ultimate membership.' But positions completely contrary to these recommendations have been seen over the last 16 months, when the EU fired on all cylinders so that not only the government, but also the Turkish people got fed up with the EU, showing hindrances, anti-Turkish statements, and jealousy over Ankara's diplomatic dynamism and its role as peacemaker.

Since October 2005, when our membership talks began, only eight out of 35 chapters have been opened. France says two more could be opened before its term presidency ends on Jan. 1, which would make 10. On the other hand, eight chapters were frozen due to the Cyprus issue and five due to France's veto. In addition, three can't be opened due to objections from France and the Greek Cypriot administration. So this equals 16. There are only 11 chapters which can be brought to the table. And the EU Commission has kept these back by failing to send the screening reports! Under these conditions, what government could be ambitious about carrying out reforms which carry political risks? I'm not hopeful, but this report should bring EU leaders to their senses and remind them of the heavy price Turkey's loss would bring.