BY FERAI TINC
HURRIYET- 2009 will be a critical turning point for Turkey's relations with the European Union. After years of the issue bubbling under, this year the issue of our opening our harbors and airports to Greek Cyprus will be taken up in earnest.
In 2006, when the issue was last dealt with, the EU's end-year summit declaration didn't issue a final verdict, but spoke of flexibility.
But if our opposition takes a toll, this could be enough to end our EU process. And once ended, resuming negotiations is very difficult.
Even without this happening, 2009 will still be a difficult year, because obstacles need to be removed for us to open new chapters in our negotiations. If not, the negotiation process, which is already moving at a snail's pace, will run completely out of steam.
Here's where we are: Since 2005, only eight out of 33 chapters have been opened. The EU froze eight chapters in 2006 due to the Cyprus issue, and tied the closing of all chapters to the condition of our opening our harbors and airports. In June 2007, France prevented the opening of five chapters. This year, due to Greek Cyprus' unofficial objections, six more chapters couldn't be opened. In addition, the EU isn't doing its job on the chapters which were already opened.
Relations are on thin ice.
Cyrus is the concrete issue blocking relations. Could Europe sacrifice Turkey for Cyprus?
As they exploit the issue, do the Greek Cypriots and Greece realize that that it would be harder to deal with a Turkey which has left the EU track?
There is no single answer to these questions. Political will, conditions and other unexpected dynamics may affect the decisions.
While Turkey is coming to a critical turning with the EU, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) is still far from pursuing a serious strategy on the issue. The government avoided taking a combative stance for the sake of its good relations with EU states. It didn't seek its just rights. But now it's been left without maneuvering room."