BY MAHIR KAYNAK
STAR- I tend to analyze political developments using a model with a global context. So I locate each incident, from the terrorist attacks in India to piracy in Somali, using this model. Up to now the key strategic substance has been oil, and it has been an important determinant in all political developments. But there are signs that policies and practices aimed at using alternative energy are on the rise. Similarly, there are moves along these lines in measures to fight the economic crisis. One can say that the strategic asset of the years to come will be agriculture.
China and India, with their burgeoning populations, are trying to carve out a place for themselves in Africa. This interest is said to concern energy resources, because oil is today's favorite raw material. People's needs are arranged much like a pyramid, with food making up the bottom row. If you pull a brick out of that row, the whole thing collapses. Similarly, a hungry person cares about nothing but filling his stomach. Agriculture's share of gross domestic product (GDP) is very small, but if it was zero, other sources of revenue would also be zero. Powers seeking to establish or maintain world domination have to control agriculture. Africa is a continent with a low population, whether the result of a conscious policy or not. So it looks almost like a new America. It can assimilate the population overflow from China and India, or it can become a region which meets their needs.
From this point of view, two strange developments - piracy off the coast of Somali and the terrorist attacks in India - are more understandable. Any country which sends a military force to the region under the guise of protecting sea vessels off Eastern Africa will actually form a beachhead for controlling this continent. The terrorist attacks in India won't help any Muslims, but they might trigger a conflict between Pakistan and India and so limit India's influence in Africa.
US President-elect Hussein Barrack Obama has been evaluated from many points of view, but few have noted that he looks like a continent. If you made a statue of Africa, he would be the best model for it, because he's a little bit Muslim, and Christian, and a little African. He looks like a poor person, but he has the potential to become rich. I believe the Middle East will carry the traces of its past richness like somebody who inherited a fortune, but it will have to lead a poor life, and the great powers will compete with each other to control Africa. How else to explain our politicians' recent visits to Africa and their welcoming African statesmen? Is this a conscious policy or are we just going with the flow? Does the rising number of Turkish schools in Africa have a cultural aim, or are they part of a great strategy?