BY CUNEYT ULSEVER
HURRIYET- As you know, the US is now set to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2011. The Iraqi army will be authorized to make decisions about the country starting early next year, and so we started to worry if we would have to ask it for permission to hit the terrorist PKK in northern Iraq. But there's something else about the decision which concerns us more closely.
Muqtada Al Sadr, the Shiite leader, stated that he wouldn't recognize the agreement with the US and that they would resist until the occupying US withdraws. For him, the US made an agreement only with Kurds, not the Iraqi nation. Sadr is supported by Iran, and certain Sunnis stand with him in not recognizing the agreement. Sadr didn't recognize the provisional Iraqi government when it was initially established, and declared an alternative government, but later relented after the US invaded his territory and Shiite leaders intervened.
If Sadr isn't convinced, an Iraqi civil war could ensue. As I've written many times, when the US withdraws from Iraq, Iraq's Sunnis and Shiites might unite against the Kurds. So a civil war might start near our borders, and Iraq might break apart. Far from wondering who we'll ask for permission to launch anti-terror attacks, Turkey should be thinking about what we would do in case of a civil war.
Obviously, whenever the US withdraws, it will consider the northern Iraqi Kurds of as the element closest to itself and will need a stable Turkey for the peace of its closest ally. The future of northern Iraq is closely related with Turkey being its friend.
Erkan Kumcu wrote in Hurriyet on Monday that countries which lack a convertible currency can't find a remedy to the economic crisis through looser financial policies or pumping money into the market, as they might worsen the crisis. We must find financial resources - there is no other solution - and the International Monetary Fund is our most important anchor. 'The third group consists of countries which are willing to forge programs with the IMF,' he wrote. 'The common feature of these countries is that the level of their foreign currency doesn't allow them to take loose monetary and financial policies, and they generally also have trade deficits. Turkey belongs to this group.' The developed countries with convertible currencies also have to protect the countries of this third group for their own interests. But from this point of view, Turkey is just another country in this third group.
What I want to stress here is that the Iraq issue provides Turkey with an opportunity and a distinction in this group! The developed countries, mainly the US , have to consider that Turkey should be among the countries minimally affected by the crisis, because it will need Turkey for their withdrawal strategy. I'm sure somebody told or will tell IMF officials about this. I hope Turkey will make good use of this advantage.