BY SEMIH IDIZ
MILLIYET- How Turkey will change over the next 20 years has started to attract intense world interest. Obviously, this springs from our geostrategic position and the potential for change with important regional impact. In short, people are inevitably looking towards us, because our economy is growing rapidly, we are developing socially develop numerous challenges, and we have a great dynamism at our disposal. Along these lines, the recent US National Intelligence Council's (NIC) report Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World also covers Turkey. Of course, no one knows for certain what will happen in future years and decades. We can only make educated guesses about the future in light of current trends. In his preface to the report, NIC Chairman Thomas Fingar stressed this point, saying that they weren't doing fortune telling.
Even the last 20 years shows how faulty predictions can be. How many would have guessed back in 1988 that the Eastern Bloc would collapse so easily? How many people could have predicted that 'communist China ' and 'poor India ' would become the strongest rivals of the 'capitalist West' in terms of production and energy use? Hardly anybody. Still, such reports are far from meaningless. What's needed is a proper framework for evaluation, including the issues mentioned above. Such reports also reflect subjective expectations, hopes and concerns. The NIC report, which includes much that is of interest, should be considered from this point of view.
So what does it say about Turkey? It projects that Turkey is likely to emerge as a model country for the Islamic world, in guiding Islamic and nationalist dynamics, as well as its closeness to modernity. Similarly, its important economic position and rising middle class will give it a growing role in the Middle East. Meanwhile, whether or not our European Union hopes weaken will be the main factor in the progress of our political reforms and human rights. As you can see, the report projects into the future from the standpoint of current political discussions, but it ignores Turkey 's sociological dynamics. For example, it writes about the rise of the middle class, but fails to see that this strengthens the secular order and democracy, as in Europe .
In short, it is blind to how a weakening of secularism, democracy and reform might not necessarily result from our complex inner dynamics. On the contrary, here's what we see ahead: In 2025 Turkey might be a Western country, where the rights of believers and unbelievers are constitutionally guaranteed as part of a modern, egalitarian understanding of secularism, and where the human and democratic rights of representation of various religious and ethnic factions are respected. Looking at Turkey's inner dynamics through sociological logic, rather than political logic, I believe this scenario is more likely to come true in 20 years. But as I said, no one has a crystal ball."