BY SOLI OZEL
SABAH- The crisis in the Caucasus has shifted almost all actors` strategic calculations and also led to unexpected lessons. For example, Russia, which won the war, is now facing unprecedented pressure. Since the start of the conflict the value of Russia`s stock exchange plummeted $290 billion and it also lost capital totaling $21 billion. Now we`re no longer talking about the Soviet Union, which opted out of capitalism, and so Russian capitalists and elite have to deal with these realities of life. Official statements saying that relations with NATO would continue should be evaluated with this in mind.
Following the crisis, the US started to take diplomatic measures using its limited power and possibilities in the region. Its reaction was moderate. The US found it necessary to send money in order to protect Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili`s power and restore the country, because US foreign policy can`t risk a big conflict with Russia. So a policy of reconciliation emerging in this context should come as no surprise. In this respect, Turkey`s moves show a search for diplomacy in line with the new balances and realities in the region.
If President Abdullah Gul`s recent visit to Armenia yields results, so frustrating opponents of the move, and diplomatic relations are established, Ankara will be able to play a founding role in new regional equations. According to a survey done by Metropoll, a large majority of the Turkish public approved of the visit and wants Turkish-Armenian relations to improve. So if the government continues this initiative, it won`t incur a political cost, but will win many points both at home and abroad.
If this initiative is supported by Russia, as Sabah daily`s Yavuz Baydar claims, we can say that all the actors in the region are looking for a new balance. The emergence of a structure from this search, which is the aim of the Caucasian cooperation platform proposed by Turkey, will require complex diplomatic moves, political determination, and good will. After Georgia, Azerbaijan is the country which has suffered the most from this conflict. As Paul Goble of the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy wrote, 10 assumptions which shaped Baku`s foreign policy in the post-Cold War era have collapsed. Among these is the assumption that Turkey would support Azerbaijan against Russia.
As Goble wrote, of course Turkey wouldn`t withhold its support in countering threats to Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijan must have realized that unsolved problems could one day explode just like a land mine. Accordingly, solving the Karabakh issue carries great importance. During his current visit to Azerbaijan, Gul should explain the Armenia initiative to reassure the Azeris. So the three countries` foreign ministers` plan to meet during the UN General Assembly in New York is right in this respect, but Turkey`s efforts alone aren`t enough to solve this issue. Obviously, the US, which placed great importance on the Armenia visit, will support efforts to find a solution. If Russia does the same, this will ensure that Turkey`s efforts bear fruit.