BY SOLI OZEL
SABAH- It seems that by recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia has completed a move it`s long been planning. What happens next depends on the stance taken by the US, which was unprepared for this development. The Bush administration`s nonexistent credibility in its final months and the involvement of US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq made it impossible for Washington to give Russia a tough, immediate response. Actually, Russia couldn`t have made a military response, either. Disagreement over how NATO should respond painted a dark picture of the future of the Western alliance.
Serious debate over Russia`s move has started in the US . Some claim that Russia remains an imperialist power and that it acted out of an understanding of power tending towards authoritarianism fed by war, and so it can`t help but act violently. They argue that Russia `s policies are anti-Western due to its structure and strategic aims and that the US response should be tough and should aim to isolate Russia . Others, however, claim that US policy towards Russia over the last 20 years, the failure to keep promises to Moscow about its vital interests, and such policies as NATO enlargement, recognizing Kosovo`s independence and agreements to bring US missile defense to the Czech Republic and Poland caused Russia to respond this way.
These people stress that Russia actually wants to act in cooperation with the West, but that it also wants to be treated respectfully and protect its interests. For example, former CIA official Flynt Leverett and his wife Hillary Mann Leverett argued, ` Russia wants to expand its energy and financial ties to the West, but it will use the tools it has to defend its interests. [U]nder the rubric of strategic partnership, Moscow would provide greater support to US objectives on a range of international issues, including the Iranian nuclear problem.`
The future scope of this crisis for Turkey depends on what stance the US takes. But it will be hard for Turkey to strike a balance between the West and Russia, something it had done easily up to now. As Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund said, "In the near-term, Turkey will face difficult policy choices in reconciling the country`s Russian and Western interests."
In fact, Turkey has been experiencing these difficulties since the beginning of the Georgian crisis in terms of the Montreux Convention, passage through the Turkish Straits, and the way the Black Sea has turned into an area of strategic conflict. In such a problematic situation, Turkey should first explain its situation to its allies. Senior commentator Mehmet Ali Birand, who knows the Caucasus very well, summed up the situation by saying that Turkey and the US share common goals and strategic interests and that now the only thing that matters is to show these interests in the US display case and put them on the US agenda. Birand added that if the US makes missteps, as its ally we should warn it and also try to sway it through close consultation, as over the Montreux issue. Turkey has to take dramatic steps in order to initiate such public diplomacy. Under these circumstances, this means steps to normalize our relations with Armenia.