BY NASUHI GUNGOR
STAR- We should be watching developments in the Caucasus more closely. Yesterday Russia officially recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in response to requests from the two breakaway Georgian provinces, according to President Dmitry Medvedev. Considering the developments beginning with Georgia's attack on South Ossetia earlier this month, this latest move might not seem surprising. But in terms of the bigger picture, one can say that through its recognition Russia took a risky step in a thorny area.
Medvedev's statement yesterday was very interesting. He said, 'Russia calls on other states to follow its example. This is not an easy choice to make, but it represents the only possibility to save human lives.' His message in this statement was very clear. He based his reasoning on the idea that if there are severe violations of human rights in a country - along the lines of Iraq and Kosovo - then there is a right to intervene there. Russia is now signaling that it has the power and will use this right. It's also taking the risk that the very same weapon could be used in areas nearby or attached to itself. Britain's reaction to Russia's recognition points to difficult days ahead. A British Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Britain found the decision unacceptable, adding that the move would do nothing to help the cause of peace in the Caucasus.
So in the future, how will Russia meet the demands that will emerge in problematic areas around itself? Will it also recognize their independence in order to save lives? And how will it respond to pressure from outside in this respect? Here's another important question: Will Russia be allowed to do as it pleases in Ossetia? If it is, there is no way Georgia can maintain its former power and importance.
US interests in the Caucasus center around energy, but for Russia, the issue is about protecting its existence. Of course, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has been most blamed for the recent crisis. Most people say he miscalculated and that Georgia paid a huge price for this. His latest statement was a complete disaster: 'I believed the main attack would come in Abkhazia - not that they (the Russians) could attack Tbilisi.' He added that he believed the mounting tensions in South Ossetia before the conflict had been a 'bluff.' If Saakashvili believe South Ossetia is unimportant for Russia and moves accordingly, this leaves me speechless. But everyone knows the opposite - that Russia won't forsake the region, resulting in a great conflict over Ossetia - and would find Saakashvili's assertion laughable.
Due to the current situation, Turkey is now moving through a difficult time, unlike anything it has seen in years. Now it's more difficult to make our stand. In addition, discussion of the future of the Montreux Convention is just the beginning.