BY ISMET BERKAN
RADIKAL- The impact of Russia `s recent attack on Georgia in the wake of Georgia attacking South Ossetia is difficult to gauge. Turkey , one of two countries accused openly by Russia during the first days of the conflict, wants to promote peace through active diplomacy. Of course, Russia first halted its military operations and then stated that it would withdraw to the border of Ossetia and Abkhazia (but it still hasn`t withdrawn) without any intervention by the international community. That`s why Turkey didn`t play a role in this.
Early in the conflict, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reportedly telephoned his Russian counterpart Dimitry Medvedev or Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, but reports said they wouldn`t take his call. Erdogan denied he had telephoned them, but he didn`t hide his wish to help end the crisis, and then proposed a new Caucasus security and stability platform. Erdogan later went to Moscow and spoke to Medvedev and Putin. It seems they didn`t reject this proposal and even said it might be useful. The next day Erdogan went to Tbilisi , where his proposal was also welcomed.
Erdogan yesterday went to Azerbaijan to further promote the proposal, and it seems he`ll do the same with Armenia . So what is this platform? How seriously should we take it? First, the platform would be a basis for bringing together five Caucasian countries - Russia , Turkey , Georgia , Azerbaijan and Armenia . The aim is to get them to talk to each other. But you know that the Russians said they wouldn`t speak to Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili anymore. Armenia is still occupying 20% of Azerbaijani territory. And even if the two countries sometimes speak to each other, they`ve been unable to reach an agreement, perhaps because Russia doesn`t want one.
Turkey has no diplomatic relations with Armenia , but it recognizes this country and sometimes talks with it, but there are serious problems between the two countries. So this Caucasus platform might be useful, and even talking about it might help. What`s more, Turkey could benefit from it as well. But expecting success beyond this level is for now just a pipe dream. As I said, it would be a success just to get these five countries to sit down to a table and have dinner. If they could do this, it would be very good. But unfortunately I don`t expect even that much. I wouldn`t expect Russia to speak to anybody about the places it considers its sphere of influence, particularly the Caucasus and Central Asia . And if it speaks, I wouldn`t expect it to say anything meaningful. If Russia decides to recognize the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent, things will get more complicated, and Russia will certainly reject any solution to the Caucasus issue besides its own. We should keep a close watch on the region and assess it carefully."