BY NASUH MAHRUKI
STAR- The way recent terrorist attacks in Turkey coincided with the crisis in the Caucasus show the need to analyze this issue more closely. The recent fire on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline which cost $1.5 billion and the terrorist PKK killing nine soldiers in Erzincan showed how Turkey is influenced by developments in its region. But couldn`t these developments have been anticipated? In `Connecting the PKK Issue to the Pipeline,` posted at www.tepav.org.tr, Dr. Nihat Ali Ozcan, an expert at the Turkish Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), writes that terrorist groups make decisions about launching attacks in line with the requests of their sponsors/supporters at the strategic level. As an example of this, Ozcan cites the May 1993 killing of 33 security officials near the province of Bingol, just as indirect negotiations were underway with the PKK, and a subsequent increase in terrorist attacks. Ozcan says an underlying reason for the recent developments is the reaction of Russia and Iran to the political and economic impact of the BTC pipeline.
Noting the recent PKK attacks, Ozcan then writes that the most interesting development concerns energy opportunities offered by the Nabucco pipeline and the Iraq and Basra region. Ozcan adds that the aim of these projects is to carry natural gas and oil to European markets via Turkey. He says this means setting up a very profitable shop next to Russia`s stand in the EU market.
In light of Ozcan`s observations, let`s look at a statement yesterday by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Lavrov declared that one can forget about Georgia`s territorial integrity, as South Ossetia and Abkhazia can never be convinced to rejoin the sovereignty of the government in Tbilisi. This might make us wonder how bad the Caucasus could get. And let`s not deceive ourselves by saying that Turkey is ready for this crisis. But we should be fair, as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan`s recent trip to Moscow, his meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitrij Medvedev, and his contacts with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili show Ankara`s skill at being ahead of clumsy democracy.
Turkey needs such speed and decision-making talent, because the developments are far-reaching. Russia is determined to make the most of the opportunity it has gained. Its recovery under Putin and the well-developed character of domestic developments make Russia stronger in terms of all international problems.
While Turkey was playing this chess game, we have already stressed the importance of domestic peace. Over the past year or so Turkey`s presidential crisis and the closure case against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) exhausted our political system. We should shake this off as soon as possible so we can focus on the current pressing agenda, but there`s no indication that the opposition is ready to do this. In addition, the ruling AKP needs to take a serious look at every aspect of foreign policy, including energy. So I`ve made my warning to those who complain that Erdogan is doing everything single-handedly and that he got stronger because his party wasn`t closed and that he doesn`t listen to anybody.