BAGHDAD, Aug 12 (AFP) - Just six weeks after taking power from the US-led occupation, Iraq's shaky interim government is playing with fire by trying to expel militiamen from one of Islam's holiest cities, analysts said Thursday.
On the eighth day of fierce fighting in the pilgrimage city of Najaf, US marines and warplanes spearheaded a massive two-pronged assault to crush a Shiite Muslim uprising.
But as thousands of US troops and Iraqi security forces tried to trap the militiamen in the heart of the city, home to the tomb of Prophet Mohammed's son-in-law Ali, they risked a violent religious and political backlash.
The interior ministry said police had been ordered to remove all militiamen from the mosque "whatever happens", although the government has been careful to insist US marines will not enter the shrine.
"It's quite dangerous. Smoke billowing out of the Imam Ali shrine, reminiscent of what Saddam did in 1991 would be a very powerful image," said Yahia Said of the London School of Economics.
"It would be very difficult to have a decisive victory in Najaf ... without causing extensive damage and the higher the cost in civilian casualties, the less the political gain," he added.
Najaf is a powerful symbol for Shiites the world over who consider Ali the true successor to the Prophet, not only the majority in Iraq, but also in Iran, where officials have been recently accused of meddling in domestic affairs.
London-based defence analyst Paul Beaver agreed the government's military offensive in Najaf is explosive and government failure could cause mayhem.
"It could lead to success for Moqtada Sadr as many other armed rebellion groups could come under his banner. This is the other risk factor."
"Any risk to the shrine would not be tolerated by the Shiites across the world."
But if Iraqi security forces succeed, it would deliver a strong message to other insurgent groups -- precisely the aim of a government which has to restore national security to survive.
"This is one of the first security challenges that face our new government. We need to be decisive, we need to be strong, we need to impose the rule of law," Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said earlier this week.
On the other hand, Sadr, widely popular among the impoverished and disenfranchised, also stands to gain.
"You're damned if you do and damned if you don't. Both the Iraqi government and the coalition forces need to show they can stand up to the (militia), but it is also benefiting the popularity of Sadr," said Said.
US support lays bare the government's inability to act decisively alone, a weakness exploited by Sadr.
Disillusioned over a national conference already delayed and likely to be overshadowed if not cancelled by the fighting, any successful uprising could force the question of coalition troops leaving the country.
The campaign has also exposed rifts within the US-appointed government. Vice President Ibrahim Jaffari, who commands considerable grass-roots respect, has heavily criticised the assault and demanded talks.
But analysts see the Najaf campaign as far less tense than an aborted US mission in the Sunni Muslim bastion of Fallujah, where hundreds of people were killed in April before marines were forced to retreat.
Sadr's fighters have proved themselves less effective at inflicting losses among US troops than insurgents in Fallujah, who attracted sympathy and admiration for their standoff against the occupation forces.
The cleric has also provoked discontent among Najaf residents, furious that his militia have hunkered down in the city, driving away thousands of tourists and much-needed income.