KABUL, Aug 12 (AFP) - Afghan voters have been trekking to registration sites in their millions despite escalating attacks, but fragile security ahead of historic October elections is set to deteriorate further in coming weeks, analysts said.
In recent months militants led by the country's ousted Taliban rulers have stepped up their attacks on electoral officials, aid workers and civilians in the south and southeast while factional fighting continues in the west. Twelve poll workers have been killed since May.
"Just before the election you will see a vigorous increase in attacks creating large numbers of casualties in order to create a media sensation," Nick Downie, security coordinator for Afghanistan NGO Security Offices, told AFP.
So far, attacks on voter registration sites and electoral officials have not kept Afghans away, with over 9.6 million people out of an estimated 9.8 to 10.5 million voters signing up to vote, over 41 percent of them women, according to UN figures Thursday.
President Hamid Karzai declared Wednesday that "attempts in the last few months to kill our people and intimidate them not to register" had failed.
"In spite of the attacks and the difficulties in transportation we have more than nine million people registered in a short period of time," he said at a joint press conference with US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who also hailed Afghan enthusiasm for their first presidential elections.
"The surge in registration that is taking place throughout the country... has to be a very vivid demonstration of the Afghan people's determination to make democracy work," Rumsfeld said.
However, the list of casualties continues to mount, especially in Afghanistan's south and southeast, which is in the grip of a mounting insurgency from Taliban loyalists.
Late Tuesday, a policeman was killed in a Taliban attack on a voter registration site in south-eastern Ghazni province and a pro-government militia commander was killed in a battle with Taliban loyalists in southeastern Khost.
Those attacks follow the murder of two electoral workers in southern Uruzgan province and the slaying of two Afghan aid workers in southeastern Paktia last week.
In addition to the 12 slain electoral workers, one is missing and 33 have been injured according to the United Nations.
Aid workers have been increasingly targetted, prompting medical aid agency Medecins Sans Frontieres to quit the country, saying conditions had become more dangerous in Afghanistan than they were during two decades of war.
"This is not a post-conflict situation. Half of the country is facing an insurgency. The Taliban were never routed. Many just put down their guns and went back to their villages," said Downie.
Last week, UN spokesman Manoel de Almeida e Silva said that securing 5,000 polling stations was going to be a huge challenge, given recent attacks on electoral workers and registration sites, of which only around 2,000 have been open at any one time.
Downie called the task "impossible" because the central government has failed to extend its authority into the provinces.
Some 20,000 US-led troops are battling insurgents in the south, while a NAT0-led force of peacekeepers patrol the capital Kabul but have made little dent into the territory of northern warlords.
"It's clear that we are not getting the numbers of troops we need, and it's not clear what these new troops are going to do," said Andrew Wilder of the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit.
Calls for an increase in the number of peacekeepers have been met slowly.
Currently 7,000 foreign peacekeepers are serving under NATO's command, mainly in Kabul. Their number is expected to rise to around 8,500 in October, while another 1,500 troops are on call outside Afghanistan -- numbers analysts said are totally inadequate.
"Even if voters are safe to vote, the coalition troops will sail off into the sunset, leaving ordinary people in the south to face the wrath of the Taliban when elections are over," said Wilder.