They were three that formed President Bush`s "Axis of Evil" -- Iran, Iraq and North Korea.
Iraq is down. Two more to go? Political scientists of all stripes agree that there is nothing like a war to rally the Americans in support of an incumbent President in an election year.
And Neo-Conservatives in Washington D.C. are already beating the drums loudly to "take care of" Iran and her nuclear ambitions while the U.S. has 135,000 troops deployed right across the Persian Gulf. Now, is that convenient or what?
However, there are two complications to (God forbid) such a new war:
1) If Iran is attacked and occupied, one has to be retarded not to see that North Korea, with her long-standing nuclear capabilities, is next. And I`m sure the North Koreans would notice that before anybody else.
Then in that case, what would prevent North Korea from exporting (and even, giving away for free!) her nuclear capabilities to any nation or organization out there that wants it?
That would be one serious destabilization of the whole Far East Asia and the world. That`s a possibility that must be prevented by all means through patient diplomacy and multilateral negotiations, and not by a head-on clash.
There is just too much at stake in cornering Iran and North Korea into a hot spot where they would be forced to lose face before they could come out clean.
2) Secondly, such a development would also strain the US-Turkish relations needlessly.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has just paid an official visit to Iran where he was received warmly by Iranian President Mohammad Khatami and former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Turkey needs Iranian cooperation to eliminate the support Tehran is extending to the Kurdish terror group PKK which sporadically continues its armed struggle against the Turkish state despite the capture of their leader Ocalan back in 1999.
Ankara knows that Tehran can create a migraine headache for the Turkish security forces by playing "the PKK card." In return, Ankara must also keep a sharp eye on the activities of the Iranian Marxist Mujahadeen guerillas.
So the two neighbors have a common interest in a close security cooperation.
Turkey and Iran also have a common commercial interest in boosting trade, investments and natural gas trade. The urgent need to increase the Turkish-Iranian trade volume was stressed by both sides during Erdogan`s August 2 visit.
But how can these goals be accomplished when Turkey is also trying to stay America`s best ally in the region, after Israel?
Turkish companies are already slapped from both sides -- sanctioned by Washington because they do business with Tehran; and slapped by Tehran because they do business with Washington and Tel Aviv. Do they warn the students in business schools against such lose-lose situations?
A military U.S. operation against Iran would rachet the Turkish-USA and Turkish-Iranian tensions to dangerous altitudes.
How would AKP government then defuse the escalating tensions is tough to predict. But it probably won`t be a pretty sight.
That`s why I would like to be neither in the shoes of the chief diplomat in Turkish Foreign Ministry in charge of the Iranian affairs these days nor in the shoes of the other unfortunate gentleman or woman running the US-American affairs in Balgat, Ankara. My hat is off to both of them. I hope they were not planning for retirement in the critical months ahead. Turkey will need all their experience, fortitude and creativity.