By Yusuf KANLI
TDN - The country is heading full storm into an unprecedented deadlock. The atmosphere of political uncertainty which was created with the closure case against the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, further intensified with a spree of detentions on July 1 within the framework of the so-called "Ergenekon probe" into alleged "patriotic gang activities aimed at toppling the elected government of the country."
Economy Minister Mehmet _im_ek has been sounding alarm bells for the Turkish economy and complaining that the domestic political uncertainty atmosphere has so far cost Turkey around $20 billion - how he explained it we have no idea - while impacts of the negative trends in international economic climate have not yet affected Turkey.
In three to six weeks time - according to what was disclosed by Osman Paksüt, the deputy chief judge of the Constitutional Court - the closure case against the ruling AKP will be finalized. Though we have some strong ideas regarding the possible verdict, no one indeed can know for sure what the verdict might be until after the court announces it.
The "Ergenekon probe," on the other hand, is continuing with detentions and arrests without an indictment, though the first detentions were made within its scope some 13 months ago and scores of people have been behind bars for many months. Kuddusi Okkyr, one of the so-called "Ergenekon suspects" died of lung cancer Saturday six days after he was released on his deathbed following a 13-month arrest without an official charge brought against him. The Ergenekon indictment - which contrary to earlier claims that would be as thick as one-and-a-half million pages is now said to be around 2,500 pages - was expected to be presented to the court last week, but according to latest reports because of latest detentions and arrests will be delayed by around two weeks.
While the closure case against the AKP has exceeded a point of no return because of the polarization in the country and over-politicization of the probe, the Ergenekon case is heading to a rather explosive process as well.
Whatever the verdict of the high court might be regarding the closure case against the AKP, it will have a long-term impacts on Turkish politics, governance of this country and, of course, in redistribution of the cards of power. It is definitely a lose-lose case and the country, as _im_ek has pointed out, already suffered a lot because of this case. A closure decision would probably create political and economic repercussions, while the AKP surviving the case with either an acquittal or a suspension of Treasury assistance verdict might produce a political monster capable enough to drift Turkey wherever it wanted, as with such a verdict it would gain such incredible strength that it would be ordained with immunity from the checks and balances system of the country. At least in the short run, there will not be any winners in the AKP closure case.
A lose-lose situation:
The Ergenekon probe, however, may produce both a win-win or lose-lose result depending on its eventual outcome. It is unfortunate that the probe was tainted with what appeared arbitrary and rather awkward detentions, gross violation of individual rights during detentions and the humiliation detained people were subjected to. Leaks to, as well as a disinformation campaign launched in the pro-government media outlets amounting to character assassination, and, unfortunately, evidence concocting created an impression that the government was acting in a revanchist understanding and trying to revenge for the closure case from anti-government elements.
The absence of an indictment after 13 months and remarks of those released from detention complaining that no serious questioning was done but they were questioned mostly about their mobile telephone conversations - which were apparently all recorded - further tainted the credibility of the case.
Whereas, if a comprehensive and credible indictment could be produced against those under arrest - including the retired generals - and if this case concluded with a verdict which cannot be disputed, it might be a great service to democracy and justice in this country and serve as a wall of deterrence against future coup plotters. But, if things continue in the past 13-month fashion, irrespective what the verdict will be, this case will be a black scar on Turkish justice and a source of friction in Turkish society.
Furthermore, what course this case will take following the closure case verdict cannot be estimated from now. Perhaps when and if political factors are removed we may see this case claimed to have been tainted with political pressures take a normal course and stop being a pain for a section of the Turkish society.
What's clear, however, is that Turkey has plunged into uncertainty and is no longer a predictable country. If we cannot find a way out the possible cost will be much higher than the $20 billion _im_ek claimed the country has lost so far because of political uncertainty.
(Yusuf Kanly can be contacted at [email protected] or [email protected])