BY TOKTAMIS ATES
CUMHURIYET- The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been very lucky in its foreign policy, and both international and regional balances have tilted in its favor. Actually it hasn’t been terribly smart but outside developments have made its foreign policy successful. We can list these developments as follows: The EU was afraid of Greece’s veto over Turkey’s membership bid and so decided to make southern Cyprus an EU member representing the entire island. This situation forced UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to do something to solve this problem by preparing a plan. The outcome of this April’s referendums on Cyprus put the Greek Cypriot administration and Athens into a corner and raised the prestige of both the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and Ankara. In addition, in spite of all its claims and efforts, the US was unable to capture Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan. Then the US experienced a similar failure in Iraq and had to rethink its plans in the region. When the US understood that trusting the Kurds in northern Iraq was counterproductive, it saw the ‘Turkish reality’ and started to support Ankara’s EU membership. The US also developed a very unfair rhetoric about the fight against terrorism when it fingered Syria and Iran as potential targets in our region, and it understood that the burgeoning cooperation between Kurds and Israel would neither endure nor meet its expectations, and thus Turkey came to the forefront again.
Even as Turkey develops its relations with Washington and increases its influence in the region, its uncertainty at the threshold of the EU is continuing. Actually the AKP’s weak spot is relations with the EU. When I was evaluating the exaggerated optimism about the results of the Cyprus referendums, I underlined the importance of being moderate. Turkey is experiencing the same thing in terms of its expectations of getting a date for EU membership negotiations. Actually it won’t be so meaningful if we get a date for negotiations far in the future. I’m afraid they will follow such a policy to lead us on. However, they might also put forth new criteria and say, ‘If you do these things, you’ll be able to get a date.’ When things reach this point, most EU member countries’ leaders will favor giving us a date, and even making us an EU member, except giving us the right of free movement. The AKP seems to be focused on the EU and very hopeful. However, if we can’t get a date, things will get difficult for it. This problem belongs not only to the AKP, but also to all of Turkey.