BY NASUHI GUNGOR
STAR- People are divided over what the current TSK cross-border operation into northern Iraq will bring in the short term.
First we must carefully weigh recent developments. Before and after the motion authorizing cross-border operations, which Parliament passed overwhelmingly, many people thought that this government wouldn't take such an operation.
Both the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), as well as all other opposition elements, thought this. They claimed the motion had been deliberately delayed and would never be acted on, as the weather would get worse, and the government was stalling
However, there were other developments back then which got little notice.
For example, the premier's speeches to his parliamentary group meetings about a year ago.
He said in them that Ankara would not allow tricks in Kirkuk, or one ethnic group to take power in the Iraqi region (near northern Iraq).
Let's review other developments as well as Turkey's diplomatic successes.
Plans for a referendum in Kirkuk urged on by Kurds were postponed indefinitely. Meanwhile, Sunni groups, which had been marginalized, are again gaining influence through Ankara's efforts.
All these were critical steps by Turkey for Iraq's future and having a say for peace in the region.
In line with this process, the government then started airstrikes in the region. This disproved naysayers who predicted no operation could take place during the winter. In addition, it ensured an important psychological advantage.
People closely following developments could see that a land operation would definitely follow the airstrikes. But nobody had expected it before March.
This land operation has important differences from other recent ones.
The first and most important difference is the government's domination of the topic. Thus, the roles and places of all institutions are in line. The time when the political power had to follow the lead of security officials is gone. The government is the one setting and applying policy.
The second difference is the timing. Ankara recently underlined its role in the region by recognizing Kosovo and holding high-level contacts in Moscow. In addition, in a critical period due to petroleum agreements, it clearly announced its presence.
Third, Turkey made clear any political balance in the region not including it will be short-lived. This, at the same time, points to the resetting of power balances in northern Iraq and a more active period for Turkey.
Fourth, the military forces for the first time have ever been put into action in harmony with other tools.
Of course Turkey doesn't hold all the cards. But some circles that see this move as a matter of domestic politics are underestimating certain issues.