BY ISMAIL KUCUKKAYA
AKSAM- So much has been written about the last summer's general elections. Everyone knew the Justice and Development Party (AKP) would win, but it was a surprise that they got 47% of the votes. Even the projections presented to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan from three separate pollsters didn't predict such a large margin. People had generally thought that the AKP would win with about 35%.
Talking recently about the era which began with these elections with a businessman who is close to Erdogan, including such issues as headscarves and moving the Central Bank, I was able to gauge future political developments and see things through Erdogan's eyes. `Our greatest advantage (in the elections) was settling economic balances in that period, which passed without an economic crisis,' Erdogan had said in the presence of the businessman. `This is our foundation. But the basic change and improvement which won so many more votes was seen in healthcare. This was our greatest success and our most important. It was followed by what we did in the field of agriculture. The secret of our electoral success, particularly in rural areas and Anatolia, lay in our incentives and agriculture policies. If you add an increase of 10-11 points from the incident of the e-memorandum [a military memo posted on the Internet derailing Abdullah Gul's first presidential bid last spring] to these to basic policies, it would equal 47%.'
It's not hard to guess the impact of that memorandum and healthcare improvements on the elections. But I've never seen such an evaluation of the agriculture factor made seriously. In dozens of analyses of the elections, I've never seen this issue given special importance. It also seems to be important that Erdogan found one of the formulas for its causes in agriculture.
When it again came to power single-handedly, the importance of the AKP's roadmap rose. It's carrying through projects which couldn't be done or weren't completed during its first term. The new Foundations Law, social security reform and nuclear power station tenders are now being implemented without a veto from the Cankaya Presidential Palace. It's trying to prevent macroeconomic balances from being spoiled through economic progress and completing the remaining privatizations. Thus it wants to eliminate the risk from foreign debt and the current account deficit stock. We can easily see that there is a discomfort in the economic team and bureaucracy.
Another striking characteristic of the AKP's second term is that the appointment of high-level bureaucrats who were vetoed by then President Ahmet Necdet Sezer is being completed. But considering the next elections set for 2012, what will a party which has been ruling for a decade tell the voters? This is the problem. Today's hot debates are the basis for answering this question. When a party rules for such a long time, there are no excuses left, and how well it does in basic areas like unemployment will be key. I don't think the AKP isn't thinking about this. You can make a similar deduction from the headscarf issue. In your opinion, what issue will decide the next general elections? Can you predict it?