by Olivier Knox
WASHINGTON - The US intelligence community said in a new report Monday that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, and that US charges about Tehran's atomic goals have been overblown for at least two years.
The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) said that the program remains on hold, that the Islamic republic's intentions were unclear, but that it also appears to be more susceptible to global pressure than had been thought.
The report warned however that Iran was still pursuing sensitive activities that can be a key step towards nuclear weapons and was expected to have the technical ability to develop a nuclear weapon sometime between 2010 and 2015.
The declassified "key findings" provided ammunition to both side in the international dispute over the best approach to Iran, and were expected to fuel rather than quench the often bitter US debate over Iran policy ahead of the November 2008 presidential elections.
The NIE, which documents the consensus of all 16 US spy agencies, cited "high confidence" that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003 and "moderate confidence" that it had not restarted as of mid-2007.
At the same time, the Islamic republic is thought to be "keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons," according to declassified key findings of the report, which was based on intelligence available as of October 31.
"But we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons," according to the estimate, which came roughly five years after an NIE that overstated Iraq's weapons abilities and intentions.
"Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005," it said, adding Iran appeared to have bowed to international pressure.
"Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously," it said.
The report found that "the earliest possible date" Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon was late 2009, "but that this is very unlikely."
The NIE judged with "moderate confidence" that Iran would be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon "sometime during the 2010-2015 timeframe," with the US State Department saying not before 2013.
The office of the US Director of National Intelligence described the document as "an extensive reexamination" of its previous May 2005 assessment of Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Over the past two years, US President George W. Bush and other top US officials have accused Tehran of seeking nuclear weapons and rallied global pressure on Iran to freeze uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities.
National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said in a statement the NIE suggested that the US strategy of ensuring "that the world will never have to face a nuclear-armed Iran" was on the right track.
"The bottom line is this: for that strategy to succeed, the international community has to turn up the pressure on Iran -- with diplomatic isolation, United Nations sanctions, and with other financial pressure -- and Iran has to decide it wants to negotiate a solution," he said.
"It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons. It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen," said Hadley.
"But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem.
Iran denies Western charges that it seeks nuclear weapons under cover of a civilian atomic energy program, and has drawn UN sanctions for refusing to freeze its uranium enrichment, which can yield materials for a nuclear bomb.
Washington recently slapped unilateral sanctions on Iran, and has been pushing for a third round from the United Nations.
ok-jit/mac

12/03/2007 19:04 GMT