BY CENGIZ CANDAR
TERCUMAN- Everybody was waiting for US President George W. Bush’s speech to the US Army War College on Monday. According to US opinion polls, Bush’s domestic approval ratings have never been lower. While John Kerry, his rival and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, would get 47% of the vote in an election held today, only 41% of the American electorate approves of Bush’s performance in office. But of course no one can predict what will happen in November’s presidential elections.
The Bush administration’s most pressing problem seems to be the Iraq issue. The economy, the hot potato of almost every US presidential election in recent memory, seems to have been supplanted by Iraq. Although recent reports show an upsurge in the US economy, Bush’s ratings continue to slide due to his performance in Iraq.
Bush’s address on Monday was intended to beat back domestic and international criticism that his Iraq policy has no clothes. According to his speech:
On July 30, authority will be handed over to a ‘fully sovereign’ Iraqi government. The coalition provisional authority (CPA) will cease to exist. The political responsibility for Iraq will thus belong to the Iraqi people as of July 1. 2. But just which Iraqi people will take over the authority? UN Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi will announce the structure of the new interim government by this weekend. He will name a president, two secretaries of state, an ‘executive prime minister’ and 26 ministers. Among the major questions that spring to mind are which positions Kurdish groups will hold in the new government and who will get the ministries of foreign affairs, oil, defense and the interior. 3. An international security force should be formed under US command to establish security in the country. During next month’s NATO summit in Istanbul, certain circles are expected to try to persuade the alliance to put together such a force. However, due to France’s firm opposition, the chances of this happening are slim. Nevertheless, Bush stated that the US military mission in Iraq will last for at least one more year, implying that the occupation might end in 2006. A UN Security Council resolution is expected to be approved in the mid-June, drawing up a timetable to establish a Constitutive Assembly in Iraq no later than next January and to hold general elections in 2006 after organizing a referendum on the constitution at the end of 2005. These developments would mean the UN taking on greater responsibility in Iraq, paving the way for international legitimacy for the current occupation.
It’s impossible to predict to what extent the practice on the ground will follow these plans. Although we can’t presume better developments in the short-run, at least we can hope Iraq will enter a new phase after June 30, which is expected to culminate with the establishment of a new regime. Such events will require new policies for changed circumstances. Iraq is a neighbor to Turkey, so we will be among those most affected by developments in the region.
Failing to develop a sound and concrete stance other than criticizing the US is no real policy. No country, Turkey included, can design its future through discourses of protest. Besides, under the current circumstances, supporting the Iraqi resistance would only mean backing partisans of the old regime and even acts of terrorism.
Mouthing once again a stance in favor of ‘the welfare of the Iraqi people’ or ‘Iraq’s territorial integrity’ cannot be regarded as a policy but only a heartfelt wish. Wishes and policies are not synonymous.
In the runup to next month’s NATO summit, it’s high time for Turkey to prepare concrete plans for the future of Iraq and adopt a solid political stance.
What would you say if someone asked you ‘What is Turkey’s Iraq policy?’ in such a critical period? At the moment, I’d have to answer, ‘I haven’t a clue’.