By December 2004 the European Union (EU) is expected to reach a decision on whether to extend a firm date to Turkey on which to start the full-membership talks. To help shape the discussion on the pros and cons of Turkey`s membership, Turkish veteran journalist Mehmet Ali Birand has published a list of reasons why Turkey`s membership makes sense not only for Turkey but for the EU as well. I present them here in full since I believe that the English-speaking observers and decision-makers (especially in Europe) should give a thought to these arguments as well.
What will Turkey gain from her EU full-membership?
Turkey`s political and strategic gains:
-- EU membership will end Turkey`s centuries-old national identity problem. After her EU membership no one will ask if Turkey “is actually a Middle Eastern country” or not. Turkey will cease to be the “other” for the Europeans.
-- Turkey will reach Atatürk`s target of “contemporary civilization” and as a European country will realize Atatürk`s civilizational vision.
-- Multi-party secular and democratic regime and the Republican fundamentals will be secured. Neither there`ll be the threat of a theocratic system in Turkey, nor the concern to protect the secular regime. Thus, the era of military interventions will be over. Instead, civic society organizations will gain importance. The duty to protect the state will be delegated to the laws and the police, prosecutors and the judges.
-- Turkish Armed Forces will play a very important role both through NATO and the United States and as a part of the European Security and Defense Initiative (i.e. The European Army). TAF will become an important component of the European Army.
-- Since she will participate in the EU decision making organs, Turkey will play a role in the formation of European policies. Such a Turkey will have more weight in the Middle East, Central Asia and South East Asia. She will have a very privileged place within the Islamic world. Turkey will have more chance to effect the developments in these regions.
-- The Aegean will turn into a peace lake. The Cyprus issue will be resolved for good. Turkey`s external security will be bolstered.
Turkey`s economic gains:
-- Turkish economy will change drastically. State`s role in the economy will diminish per force and a more competitive Turkish economy will jump to a new level. Economy will be administered according to EU rules instead of the policies of different governments.
-- EU is Turkey`s most important resource and trade partner. Half of its imports and exports is with the EU. Most of the foreign investments and the largest numbers of foreign tourists come from EU. By entering the EU market, Turkey will secure her exports to a 25-country 600-million-consumers common market, increase the foreign investments by multiple folds, will gain guaranteed access to the most advanced technologies and capital goods, at affordable prices.
-- First the Turks currently living in Europe, then certain professionals in Turkey, and lastly all Turkish workers will gain the right to free circulation in EU. Two-and-a-half million Turks living in Europe will benefit from equal rights and equal payment with the rest of their fellow Europeans.
A new life-style and jurisprudence for Turkey:
-- With the EU membership, the Turkish legal system that has been criticized for so long will go through new reforms and Turks will enjoy a new legal era.
-- Fundamental human rights and social rights will be implemented in Turkey just like they are now applied in Europe. Turkey will rapidly leave behind the current deficiencies in that regard.
-- New educational venues will open up for the Turkish youth and they`ll be able to participate in the EU educational opportunities.
What will EU gain from Turkey`s full-membership?
-- EU will transform into a true global actor. Turkey`s participation will open new vistas for EU and expand EU`s vision. Today EU looks mostly like a club of rich merchants. After Turkey`s membership, EU will gain a great strategic depth around the globe by using her political and military weight. Turkey`s contribution to such strategic extension will be considerable.
-- EU will enjoy new guarantees on her energy sources. The Caspian Sea basin is home to one the world`s largest proven oil and natural gas reserves. After the completion of the Baku (Azerbaijan)-Ceyhan (Turkey) oil pipeline, Turkey will guarantee the EU meet her energy needs in a more consistent way.
-- In the years ahead, most of world`s conflicts will take place in the Iraq, Middle East and the Caucasus regions. For the EU which wants to increase her strategic weight in these regions and become a more decisive player, there cannot be an ally more important and effective than Turkey. An EU-full-member Turkey, with her armed forces and geographic location, will contribute immensely to EU`s role in such conflicts.
-- When she becomes a full member of EU, Turkey`s status within the Islamic role will undergo a significant change. That will mitigate much of the post-9-11 hypothesizing about a “clash of civilizations” between the Christian West and the Muslim East. Through Turkey`s membership, EU will prove that it is not a “Christian club” prejudiced against the Muslims. On the contrary, EU will then be able to show that it has the depth and flexibility to accommodate cultural diversity. EU will then prove to the world that Islam and contemporary values and democracy can actually co-exist. Turkey`s membership will change the Islamic world`s approach to Europe in particular and the West in general as well.
-- Within 25 years, Turkey is expected to reach a population of 85 million and an income per capita of $10,000. Such a large, dynamic, purchasing-power-on-the-rise and young Turkey will become a very important market for the EU. Turkey has signed a Customs Union with the EU in 1995. In the post-customs-union period (1995-2002) Turkey`s trade with the EU has increased by more than 100%. Turkey`s exports to EU jumped by 138% while her imports went up by 80%. According to the year 2002 figures, Turkey ranks EU`s 11th largest trade partner with 2.2% share in EU exports and 2.4% share in EU imports. EU, however, is Turkey`s number one trade partner with 51% of the exports and 42% of the imports.
-- The population of the EU is progressively getting old. Within the next 20-25 years, EU will have an even older demographics. In contrast, Turkey`s young population will meet EU`s manual labor demand. In addition to this, when Turkey become a full-member, the majority of the first and second generation (aging) Turks who are now living in Europe will return to Turkey (since they can enjoy the same EU rights and privileges back at home) and will leave their place to a younger population.
-- EU is running out of land to establish new large factories and integrated industrial sites to boost the EU economy. Especially in Central Europe, such congestion and land scarcity is reaching crucial dimensions. Turkey, however, still has plenty of large open spaces that will be available for the use of both the EU industry and the EU armed forces (for training and joint exercises).