BY NURAY BASARAN
AKSAM- It’s very difficult to evaluate British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s visit to Ankara considering London’s ambivalent distance from Ankara. On the one hand, there’s the December European Union summit and the Cyprus issue, and on the other, there’s next month’s NATO summit set to deal with Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Greater Middle Eastern Initiative. There are many steps needed to solve problems, ones requiring serious political responsibility. It’s interesting that almost all of these steps have been left to the NATO summit. Discussing Britain’s expectations for Turkey would be the last option, because the US is the country with the greatest expectations for the summit. The meeting is very important for transforming the US’ post- September 11 military activities into NATO’s. Moreover, supposing that Britain came for US requests would be a mistake.
Let’s construct a scenario on unknown parameters: The most critical operation for NATO’s success is moving the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan outside Kabul and providing support from some NATO countries, especially Turkey and Spain. Last week’s meetings in Brussels already showed some improvement on the military level, but the most serious issue is Iraq’s future and a new Middle East in light of this. Our scenario is based on the prospect of a collapse in Iraq within two years due to disputes about secularism and authority. At the summit, NATO would have undertaken the Greater Middle East Initiative’s goals as its own. But France, unable to merge the Mediterranean Dialogue and the Partnership for Peace (PfP) into one program, would be disturbed by the Initiative’s influences on the dialogue and thus could start forestalling efforts. Russia could then announce that it regarded the PfP as a military threat due to the Greater Middle East Initiative. The borders of the Palestinian state would disturb not only Israel but also Jordan, Syria and Iraq, and violence could break out. While Iraq starts to split, Syria and Iran could get into disputes with the US. NATO would get caught in the southern provinces of Baghdad. Turkey could face a situation in which it has to decide on measures beyond its frontiers for the security of its borders and the political economy. Countries like Turkey, the US, Germany and Britain, which have to race against time, would begin to make their tour right now. Blair could also have visited Turkey for this reason. This is another aspect...