BY MURAT YETKIN
RADIKAL- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will arrive in Ankara next Thursday, one day ahead of her trip to Istanbul to attend the Istanbul summit on Iraq. I don't know what this hastily arranged visit to the capital might signal. Is she coming to Turkey to try to convince Turkey not to carry out an operation into Iraq, or to tell us that at least some of the conditions Turkey has insisted on to head off an attack have been fulfilled? There is a common belief and pessimism in Ankara that Rice will come to Turkey to head off an attack. The lack of trust between Washington and Ankara has recently become very clear. I could see this when US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza, attending the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) meeting yesterday as an observer, said that the US was trying to rescue the eight Turkish soldiers who were taken prisoner last Sunday. Reporters there heard a top Turkish official loudly dismiss this as "empty words" which were irritating Turkey.
The recent developments not only on the Iraqi border but also in Ankara can certainly be called a war of nerves. Another sign of this appeared this week when Rice urged Turkey not to carry out a military operation. Visiting Bucharest, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan quickly replied that whatever the US might wish, the decision is Turkey's. And President Abdullah Gul's opening speech at the BSEC had a message for everybody: Turkey is running out of patience.
Yes, the current conditions are unlike before the Iraq war started in 2003, when Turkey could do whatever it wanted in northern Iraq. Yes, there are serious differences between the Syrian issue of 1998 (when PKK terrorists were taking shelter there) and the Iraq issue of 2007. Yes, this time we're dealing not with the late Saddam Hussein or Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, but with the US, which is supposed to control all of Iraq. Despite all this, in the past Turkey has proved its ability to cut off its nose to spite its face. (See the Cyprus issue.) So even if he and the government are worried that Turkey will get into the Iraqi quagmire, we should take Gul's statements seriously, not only for the reasons I listed, but also because Gul spoke just after a six-hour National Security Council (NSC) meeting the day before, the first that he chaired. During that meeting, the NSC decided to recommend a series of economic sanctions to pressure the Kurdish administration in northern Iraq, but military measures weren't even mentioned. But imagining that military options weren't discussed during the meeting beggars belief. Gul made his speech yesterday fresh from sounding out the military and government. A General Staff statement yesterday thanked the huge crowds which have taken to the streets this week to protest the terrorist PKK. The statement came a few hours after the Supreme Board of Radio and Television (RTUK) rescinded its ban on news broadcasts about the terrorist attack.
These developments indicate rising pressure on the government, which wants to minimize public tension, to take action. In addition, what the Iraqi delegation which arrived in Ankara yesterday has to say is another matter of curiosity, because Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani are still resisting cracking down on the PKK. There are many reasons for this, including their fear that the terrorist group will target them as well. The Kurdish administration might not be able to take a lot of harm, from pipeline sabotage to God knows what. What's more, the Kurds rely on the US occupation of Iraq, and thus feel they're on the verge of an independent Kurdish state and are playing for high stakes. So maybe next week the government can tell Rice something similar to what Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal recently said: `Instead of Turkey stopping the PKK, why don't you?"