BY SEMIH IDIZ
MILLIYET- Last week I had the opportunity to sound out the situation in Washington for three days. Circles close to the administration and Turkey analysts at leading think-thanks told me that the Bush administration was taking Ankara's warnings over the Armenian resolution very seriously.
The way the administration rushed US Defense Undersecretary and former US Ambassador to Ankara Eric Edelmen to visit Ankara, along with Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried, is proof of that.
But at this point the Bush administration has become a `lame duck.' Democrats who support the Armenian resolution, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are carrying out a merciless war of attrition against the Bush administration.
US experts fault the Bush administration's failings for the situation. Supporters of the resolution have been attacking the administration's argument that US interests could be damaged.
They claim that Turkey is bluffing, adding that Ankara, well aware of the importance of its ties with the US, won't shoot itself in the foot.
Armenia is also pressing ahead with its lobbying efforts. Armenian Premier Serzh Sargsyan is planning to travel to Washington on Wednesday.
According to Washington insiders, Sargsyan has two goals:
First, he reportedly wants to counter the Bush administration's argument that if Congress passes the resolution, an improving dialogue between Turkey and Armenia would suffer a setback. He will reportedly say that brief contacts at certain international platforms do not constitute dialogue. Secondly, he will argue that Turkey's claim that its stance on the events in 1915 is more sincere is `artificial.'
Following the murder early this year of Hrant Dink, which ended up benefiting the Armenian lobby, the suspended jail sentence handed down last week to his son Arat Dink - just as the committee was considering the resolution - also helped those who support the resolution.
Pointing to this case as well as our controversial Article 301, Sargsyan is expected to claim that Ankara's proposal to establish an impartial commission of historians is disingenuous.
In summary, Ankara has to prove that it's not bluffing. Otherwise, steps which don't really hurt the US will obviously be used by the Armenian lobby.
Anyway, in this atmosphere, recent efforts by the US State Department's Nicholas Burns to revive strategic ties seem dead. On the contrary, ties between the two countries are growing more frayed and nearing the breaking point. We'll see whether this will be bad or good for the two countries.