BAGHDAD, Sept 4, 2007 (AFP) - The US military will use the approaching Muslim holy month of Ramadan as a key indicator of whether it can reduce its troop numbers in Iraq, a top military commander said on Tuesday.
Ramadan, which this year begins around September 12, is favoured by insurgents as a time to launch brutal attacks on security forces and civilians across the country.
The lead-up to Ramadan has so far seen low levels of violence, said Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, the number two commander of US-led forces in Iraq.
"Ramadan is big, so what happens in the next 45 days (will be important) ... So far in the 30 days before Ramadan violence has been going down," Odierno told reporters from Western news organisations at a military base in Baghdad.
In the past, he said, violence had increased before and during Ramadan and then tapered once it was over.
"This year it has been going down (before the start Ramadan). We think this is a trend," he said.
"So all we have to do is carry this out and see its impact as a whole over time. That will be a big indicator" of whether the current security situation is maintained and in turn help deciding on a possible troop reduction.
Odierno said the coming months would be crucial, but "I think if we can continue to do what we are doing, we'll get to such a level where we think we can do it with less troops."
On Monday, during a surprise visit to Iraq's western Anbar province, US President George W. Bush indicated that the number of American troops in the country could be reduced if the current security situation is maintained.
"If the kind of success we are now seeing (in Anbar) continues, it is possible to maintain the same level of security with fewer American forces," Bush said after meeting his top officials at a desert air base.
The US military claims it has made security gains in the restive province, once a hotbed of insurgent activity.
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09/04/2007 12:09 GMT