BY ISMET BERKAN
RADIKAL- I’m sure that you’re very bored of reading columns about the Cyprus issue but now we’ve entered the final week, probably the most important one in the island’s history. The results of the referendums slated for Saturday will determine the future of the island’s people, which is why I’d like to talk about possible scenarios for the vote:
1. Yes from both sides: I think this would the best outcome. In this case, the United Nations would immediately announce the results. The parliaments of Turkey, Greece and Britain would then approve the guarantor agreements plus the plan itself. I think the possibility of such an optimistic outcome is about 30%.
2. No from both sides: This, by contrast, would be the worst outcome. In this case, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan would declare all documents pertaining to the plan ‘null and void.’ The Greek Cypriots would join the ranks of the European Union anyway, a development making the northern part a strange EU territory where Union law does not apply. The embargos on the northern part won’t be lifted, leaving the Turkish Cypriots still completely isolated from world markets. I think the possibility of this scenario is about 10%.
3. Turks No, Greeks Yes: This is another unwelcome outcome. The consequences would differ little from those spelled out above. Moreover, international pressure on the Turkish side would be stepped up due to the stubbornness shown in the Turks’ rejection. The possibility is of this is a mere 5%.
4. Turks Yes, Greeks No: If the Turkish Cypriots embrace the Annan plan, the EU will face serious problems. However, the legal situation will remain the same. While the Greek Cypriots are accepted into the EU, the Turkish Cypriots will be left alone. If this happens, the embargos on Turkish Cyprus will either be softened or lifted. However, we don’t know how this can be done since they were imposed through court rulings. Whether states even have the authority to lift them is a complex matter. Nevertheless, this scenario will damage the international prestige of the Greek side, which is why I think under such circumstances the EU is very likely to request new referendums on the island.