Turkish-Cypriots (TC) and Greek-Cypriots (GC) will vote for the Kofi Annan Plan in a popular referendum on April 24. The GC were told far in advance that they will become a full member of the EU on May 1 even if they vote “no” on April 24.
EU's basic Cyprus strategy has been the same as that of a referee who lays down the following rules for the two sides in a conflict:
“I will reward A if and only if he makes peace with B. But I will reward B whether he makes peace with A or not.”
How motivated B would be to sign a peace treaty under this formula, especially if making peace also involves important concessions on the part of B? Under these rules, “making peace” would certainly be against the human nature.
By advocating a “no” response to the Annan Plan on April 24, the GC leadership has proven that the basic rules of human behavior did not change within the last couple of months.
EU leaders have also proven how unrealistic they've been in expecting a radical change in behavior when the pre-announced rewards were not indexed at all to the intended behavior.
Now there are new signals that if on April 24 the TC vote “yes” and the GC vote “no,” both the EU and the USA may “re-evaluate” the historic embargo on the North. This is the tight UN-sanctioned embargo that has crippled the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) economy beyond repair and prevented the recognition of the TRNC by any country in the world, except Turkey.
If the embargo is slackened off or lifted altogether, many Turks feel that that could be the first step towards the full recognition of TRNC in the future by at least some friendly countries. Azerbaijan has already announced its intention to do so.
Many Turks also feel that a “no” vote by the GC will render the split between the North and the South permanent and expect the Green Line to become the new EU border.
Such a development would of course blow away Turkey's chances of ever joining the EU as a full member as well but at this point most Turks believe that the EU is just toying with the idea anyways and has never been sincere about admitting a big country like Turkey with its 70-million population, serious economic problems, and a non-Christian cultural background.
So perhaps unknown to the GC and the EU, most Turks will actually take a deep breath of relief on the morning of April 25 if the GC vote turns out to be a “no.” That way they will at least be relieved from the chronic pain of unrealistic EU hopes.
They would be relieved that they have not “given away” Cyprus just like Crete was given away in 1913. (The Cyprus/Crete analogy may or may not be correct or relevant but that's a strong public perception in Turkey influencing public reaction to official policy.)
And they will feel relieved that the door is cracked open for a better economic future (compared to the past misery) for TRNC due to a re-evaluation of the international embargo, a situation that might perhaps even lead to an eventual political recognition by the international community.
I have a feeling that the GC political leadership is confident they can have their cake and eat it too. They must be believing that they can somehow unify the island and relegate the TC back to the status of a "minority" without even lifting a finger, by just sticking tight to the status quo and joining the EU on May 1. Perhaps they count on further EU and UN pressures on Turkey to bring about the intended result in the long run.
But their “no” vote will be remembered for a long time to come as a part of the historic record and will more often than not be held against them as the last opportunity lost in unifying the island and bringing a much-needed peace and stability to the Eastern Mediterranean. The stalemate and strife on the island will continue.
I hope on April 24, the GC voters will prove that they have more common sense and vision than their political leadership.