BANGKOK - An intense power struggle has broken out among the top ranks of Thailand`s military over who should succeed the nation`s junta leader, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, when he retires at the end of September.
The new army chief will lead Thailand`s junta as the nation heads into general elections on December 23, which are supposed to restore democracy in the kingdom after the ouster of elected premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
Whoever fills the job will have an enormous impact on whether the kingdom sticks to its rocky road back toward democracy or risks suffering through another coup in the future, analysts say.
"Whoever controls the most number of key men in the army can sway things in terms of whether or not to have a coup," said political analyst Giles Ungpakorn.
Senior Thai army officials are routinely pushed into retirement once they turn 60, as Sonthi did last year.
Sonthi`s acceptance of retirement is seen by many analysts as a prelude to his launching a political career that could lead to him seeking the premiership himself at the elections.
Normally the next most senior commander would become army chief, and the decision would be confirmed by mid-August, before the annual military reshuffle is formally announced on October 1.
But there`s nothing routine about this decision, in which the military, the army-backed government, and the palace are locked in an intense closed-door debate over which of three top generals should succeed Sonthi.
The current Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, as well as the top royal adviser, General Prem Tinsulanonda, are both former army chiefs themselves. No civilian leader has a say in the decision.
The debate has been so fierce that Thailand`s stock market was last month rattled by rumours of a new coup, and the defense minister had to publicly deny any rift among the top brass.
Theoretically, the next man in line for the job is General Saprang Kalananamitra, 59, an outspoken critic of Thaksin and a military hardliner who had publicly warned that he would stage another coup if a new political crisis breaks out after the elections.
In the wake of the coup last September, he scooped up lucrative top jobs on two of Thailand`s state enterprises, but has run into criticism from workers and investors over his handling of the companies.
Under previous military governments, junta members often took such jobs as well-paid sinecures to boost their army salaries.
"If General Sonthi and General Prem insist on Saprang, it means they insist on a hardline to keep Thaksin out. He`s a very clear choice for the more right-wing approach," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Chulalongkorn University.
Sonthi`s personal choice appears to be his protege and confidante, General Montree Sungkasap, 58, the army chief of staff.
The criticism against him is that he had no direct role in the coup against Thaksin and he is not a current member of the junta.
The compromise candidate could be General Anupong Paojinda, 57, who is currently assistant army chief.
He was a key player in the coup, mobilising forces in Bangkok during the takeover. He sits on the junta, but has avoided politicising his role and refrained from picking up any corporate jobs along the way.
Although he was Thaksin`s classmate in military prep school, he is widely seen as a solid career military man.
"Anupong has a better chance at this time, because he has kept himself out of this politicisation," Thitinan said.
But so far, there`s no clear frontrunner for the job.
The uncertainty over who will be leading the military adds to the unpredictability around the upcoming elections.
Sonthi has said he will decide on his political future after his retirement, but no one expects him to slip quietly off the national stage.
"He won`t be going home to watch TV," Thitinan said.

09/02/2007 01:58 GMT