BY RUSEN CAKIR
VATAN- Nouri al-Maliki's visit to Turkey has great symbolic importance, as he's the first international leader to visit Ankara after last month's general elections. But it wouldn't be realistic to expect this one-day visit to do very much about the presence of the PKK in northern Iraq. Moreover, even assuming that Maliki makes clear and binding statements about the PKK and sign some agreements in Ankara, it's doubtful how and with whom he'll implement them. Because there's more than one power center in occupied Iraq, which is going through an unsuccessful reconstruction period. The authority and influence of the prime minister is highly limited. Former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, like Maliki from the Dawa Party, only lasted a year in office. Maliki, who succeeded him in May 2006, has yet to show an impressive performance, as he always acts in fear of stumbling.
Furthermore, Maliki is visiting Turkey at a time when he's very weak. First of all, six Sunni government ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Salam Al-Zubayi, recently resigned, but Maliki refused to approve this.
Secondly, Maliki is on bad terms with the US. The reason for the crisis is the strategy of Gen. David Petraeus, head of the US forces in Iraq, to arm Sunni rebels against al-Qaeda. Shiite groups affiliated with Moqtada al-Sadr are protesting, saying that they'll arm their own militias, and Maliki, a Shiite himself, has made similar statements. Maliki's authority over Shiites is also in danger.
Lastly, in order not to threaten regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Maliki can't rely on Iran. Besides, Tehran supports Maliki's rival party, the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution of Iraq, and even Moqtada al-Sadr.
Turkey and Iran will talk about the terrorist PKK in bilateral meetings. It seems that Kirkuk will play second fiddle as the minimum conditions for the planned referendum late this year haven't been met in the set time. Maliki is expected to ask Ankara, which has been influential in persuading Sunnis to join the government, to help get the resignations withdrawn. But Turkey believes that the Sunnis were right to resign, so it will want Maliki to take steps to placate them.
Maliki will later go to Tehran, which has led some to ask if he's using this as a shield against criticism of his visiting Turkey. A source close to the government says that the opposite is true, and that in fact he's only visiting Turkey because he doesn't want to look like he's just visiting Iran.