Who Would Gain What From A Solution In Cyprus?

BY MURAT YETKIN
RADIKAL- While Ankara’s National Security Council is evaluating recent development on Cyprus, other countries will hold similar meetings. Therefore, it would be useful to summarize the expectations of the parties involved.
The Greek part of Cyprus: This is the party least willing to reach a solution by May 1. It has scored economic and political progress even as its Turkish neighbor has stagnated under a political and economic embargo. It is acting with the assurance of guaranteed European Union membership. But due to its worries about the sovereignty of the Turkish side and international pressure, it’s still at the table.
The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC): Nicosia’s greatest hope is to gain EU membership and international recognition without harming bizonality and Turkey’s guarantees. TRNC President Rauf Denktas’s current stance is negative. The government can be a winner if it manages to convince its people to approve an agreement.
Greece: If no agreement is reached, the Greek part of the island will become an EU member, and Athens will be keeping its promise to the Greek Cypriots. But it would face heavier EU pressure and would be held responsible for a division in Cyprus and excluding Turkey from the Union. In addition, the unresolved situation in Cyprus would make reaching a solution in the Aegean more difficult. This situation contradicts Greece’s policies of removing any threat from the east and cutting its defense expenditures.
Turkey: A just and permanent solution in Cyprus will benefit Turkey in many ways. Firstly, it will remove a real obstacle to Turkey’s EU membership. Secondly, Ankara will have proved it can work within Europe’s culture of political pacts. Thirdly, Turkey will be able to conduct its foreign policy more effectively. Better steps will be taken in the Middle East, the Balkans and the Caucasus.
Britain: The third guarantor nation for Cyprus will feel better if a unified Cyprus joins the EU. The Cyprus problem will then be part of the Union. If these problems end with Turkey’s own membership, this will mean security and stability in the eastern part of Europe.
The European Union: A solution in Cyprus will boost the arguments in favor of Turkey’s EU membership. In this respect, Germany’s claim that Turkey as a secular Muslim country implementing Western democratic values would constitute a bridge to other Muslim countries would be strengthened.
The United States: Washington has more than one expectation in Cyprus. A solution in the eastern Mediterranean could be an example for the conflicts in Israel-Palestine and Armenia-Azerbaijan. The solution in Cyprus on land could be an example for the Azerbaijani land that was invaded by Armenia [upper Karabagh]. The Armenian diaspora in the US is the only obstacle to such a solution. A Cyprus deal would help the US convince the Armenians.