BY YILMAZ OZTUNA
TURKIYE- Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul and his Greek counterpart Petros Molyviatis, and Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Talat and Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos, are set to participate in this week’s four-way Cyprus summit in Switzerland. Following Sunday’s local elections in Turkey, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Greek counterpart Costas Karamanlis will join them. The summit is closed to the press. Such a measure aims at an agreement between the island’s two sides. But if you think that they will reach an agreement, you may be greatly disappointed. Both sides are holding this summit because they’re trying to complete a process that they promised.
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan will arrive in Switzerland on the same day as the Turkish and Greek premiers to see what issues the sides have reached agreement on. He will also make decisions on the issues still in contention on the condition that he doesn’t contradict his own Cyprus plan. The resulting document will later be presented at separate referendums to both sides on Cyprus. It would be good if both sides have 50-50 yes votes. This would establish a united Cyprus republic which would become a full member of the European Union on May 1. If the Turkish side accepts the referendum and the Greek Cypriot side rejects it, this would trouble the UN, the EU and Washington. But conversely, if the Greek Cypriot side accepts the referendum and the Turkish side rejects it, it would be disadvantageous for both sides. In this case, as Foreign Minister Gul direly predicted, the island might end up like Kosovo. For this reason, Annan should prepare his plan carefully. In Turkey, supporters of the status quo don’t want a solution on Cyprus. If Erdogan and Karamanlis reach an agreement in Switzerland, everybody will be relieved that the nightmare has finally ended. However, the chances aren’t good.