BY TUFAN TURENC
HURRIYET- The Democrat Party (DP) will determine the outcome of Sunday's elections. If, in defiance of the expectations and predictions, the DP crosses the 10% election threshold, this will be the end of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule. Because a four-party Parliament would make a single-party government impossible. Then the polls showing the DP consistently below the threshold will go into history's dustbin. On the other hand, if the center-right parties can't get enough votes, as the polls show, and just three parties cross the threshold, the percentage of votes going to the AKP will rise, as in that case most of the votes of the center right will go to the AKP. Should the Republican People's Party (CHP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) get 45% of the votes, the AKP can't come to power alone. There's yet another possibility: If people's votes reflect their concern about the regime, the CHP may benefit. Sunday's election is very complicated, and making predictions is no easy task.
Another interesting point about the elections is the differences between various polls. For instance, one poll shows the AKP with 48%, while another shows 30%. The CHP ranges between 19% and 28%. The results of polls conducted scientifically shouldn't differ so dramatically. We'll see on Sunday evening that some of these polls are far from scientific. But beware, because the same shady firms will do polls in future elections, and some newspapers will publish them. In Western countries, such companies have their licenses revoked.
We've seen a difficult election campaign due to the high mercury, but it's still very interesting. Quarrels between the party leaders make the atmosphere tense sometimes, but at other times they make it humorous. For instance we shouldn't take Prime Minister Erdogan's pledge to give up politics if he can't come to power alone so seriously. Because he generally forgets his promises. For instance, he pledged many times in the 2002 election campaign to end parliamentary immunity, but he hasn't done it. A similar example is pledges to fight corruption.