BY BILAL CETIN
VATAN- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's pledge to give up politics if his party isn't elected to another term of single-party rule sets the bar high. In order to come to power alone, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) would have to get 38% of the votes if three parties pass the threshold, or 40% if four parties cross the threshold. Can it?
Yes, in theory. Even though polls show the AKP riding high, it isn't easy to get more than 38% of the votes. Because assuming voter turnout of 85%, the AKP would have to get nearly 14 million votes in order to come to power alone in a three-party Parliament. This is only possible if the AKP boosts its votes by 35%.
The prime minister believes that he can achieve this. If his party can get 38% of the votes on Sunday, it can easily get the majority necessary to form a government alone in a three-party Parliament. If a fourth party also passes the threshold, they'll need 40% of the votes for a single-party government.
We'll see whether this will happen or not on Sunday night. We'll also see if there will be a single-party government or we'll return to coalitions, and if Erdogan or some other party leaders and politicians will quit the political stage or not.
Moreover, it would be difficult to form a bloc with an overwhelming majority in Parliament even if a single-party government is formed after the elections, as it's almost certain that at least three parties will cross the threshold.
In the 2002 general elections, the AKP got 10.6 million votes and won 357 seats in Parliament. But this time a party would win 280-290 seats even if it gets more than 14 million votes.
The voters' will is going to determine what kind of a government will be formed. But right now there are at least six scenarios:
1. An AKP single-party government, if it gets more than 38% of the votes
2. A less powerful minority AKP government, if it gets nearly 35% of the votes but it has nearly 260 seats, with the support of independent candidates of the Democratic Turkey Party (DTP)
3. A coalition of the AKP and the Democrat Party (DP), if four parties pass the threshold.
4. A coalition of the AKP and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in a three-party Parliament
5. A coalition of the AKP and the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP)
6. A coalition of the CHP and MHP.