BY TAHA AKYOL
MILLIYET- This time next week the results of the July 22 general elections will be clear. CNN Turk will announce the outcome on Sunday evening. Back in fall 2002 it did the same without making a single mistake. Today I would like to be a bit adventurous and share my rough forecasts for the results. I believe the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will be the top party and come to power alone, but with fewer seats, because more parties and independents will get in and take more of Parliament's 550 seats. I also think the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) will boost its vote share, but on the other hand it will have somewhat fewer deputies. I think the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will be the number three party. I hope the Democrat Party (DP) gets into Parliament as well. I also believe that independents from the Democratic Turkey Party (DTP) will establish a group in Parliament.
All the parties will be glad with the outcome of the election, but one group in particular will be very happy: Our high bourgeoisie who are firstly secular, then liberal! These people were defined by the foreign media as well with this headline: Those who vote for CHP but who want the AKP to come to power alone. These people like the CHP's secularism, but the AKP's economic program. Our high bourgeoisie longs to see the AKP as a party with fewer seats, but one which won't worsen paranoia over reactionaryism. They want the AKP to come to power for stability and the economy, but they also want a CHP with more votes so as to safeguard secularism. After the general elections, Parliament's first task will be to elect the president, as I believe, through consensus. This consensus might be between the AKP and CHP, or perhaps the AKP and MHP. It wouldn't be a surprise if the AKP and MHP find common ground on such issues as the presidency and the Board of Higher Education (YOK).
The AKP's candidate list has already signaled that it will be more conciliatory. I think in the end Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will want to become president. So what about Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul? With his qualifications, Gul is a long-distance runner. The CHP will tread softly following the elections. When CHP leader Deniz Baykal talked about the `New Left,' I applauded him, but Cumhuriyet criticized him. Politics requires flexibility. Don't be surprised if Baykal and Erdogan shake hands one day after the elections. I'm only concerned about what relations in Parliament will be like between the MHP and DTP. Bahceli succeeded in preventing a Turkish-Kurdish polarization in the country by steering young people away from conflicts. Now the DTP members also say, `We've learned our lessons and will be reasonable from now on.' I hope MHP-DTP relations in Parliament won't stoke public tensions. Turkey should manage to create a period in which the national per capita income rises to $10,000.