A Presidential Candidate From Outside Parliament?

BY ASLI AYDINTASBAS
SABAH- If you asked, `How are things going in Ankara now?' my answer would be `Unexciting.' We're about to hold one of the most critical elections in our republic's history, but there's no excitement. It's as if the election results and even percentages are already known.

In such an atmosphere, what Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently told a reporter sent political shockwaves. The premier signaled that the next president will probably be chosen by the new Parliament. He also used the word `compromise' to say that he'll try to seek consensus with other political parties. These are words which ease the tension. This guarantee of compromise took on added importance when main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal didn't oppose this at the beginning but left the door open.

This wind of compromise made Ankara forget the general elections and again take up wagers over who's going to be the next president, just like a few months ago.

The premier saying their candidate could come from outside Parliament was interpreted as a condition by the CHP.

The most important aspect of these discussions is that the constitutional amendment for popular vote of the president is already null. Both Erdogan and Baykal say that the president should be chosen by Parliament. Then why did the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) press for a hasty referendum on this constitutional change? Clearly, the referendum on the amendment set for this fall will be based on the question, `Should the people, not Parliament elect the president in the years to come?'

Whether the next president comes from inside or outside Parliament will be shaped by the post-election scene. But Erdogan and his party have no such guarantee. If the AKP wins enough seats to form a government, the first thing they will do is to seek compromise for someone from inside Parliament. It may be Vecdi Gonul, Besir Atalay, Zafer Caglayan or Mehmet Aydyn.

A candidate from outside parliament is only a Plan B, and may be chosen if the AKP can't get the votes it wants. At this point State Minister Abdullatif Sener's chances aren't as good as expected. The AKP administration may hesitate over Sener, whom they accuse of abandoning the ship in stormy weather.

Names such as retired Chief of General Staff Hilmi Ozkok, Hikmet Cetin or Supreme Court of Appeals head Osman Arslan started to be heard in Ankara again, but remain only speculation. Decision-makers will take the new Parliament, elected names and the power of the parties into consideration. Later, a compromise may be sought for the presidency.

What about Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, then? He's bitter about how his presidential run was derailed, even though he says the important thing is what the people want. He probably won't insist on running again. He's also likely to wait for the results of the elections and act accordingly.

In sum, we wouldn't be wrong to say that right now there are no candidates for president.