BY BILAL CETIN
VATAN- Yesterday the Constitutional Court rejected applications made by President Ahmet Necdet Sezer and the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) to annul a constitutional amendment for popular election of the president using a two-round system. This ruling turned everyone's political calculations upside down, because until yesterday, both the ruling party and the opposition had expected the court to strike down the amendment, and all the parties had been planning to elect a new president in Parliament through consensus after July 22. The court's ruling set off political shockwaves. Now, besides the issue of how the president will be elected or if he will be elected, even the meaning of elections to be held on July 22 is up in the air.
What will happen now? Of course, there's no change in the current process. The elections will be held on July 22. If the Supreme Board of Elections (YSK) announces the election results on July 29, Parliament will hold its first session on Aug. 3 and deputies will take their oaths. Next will be procedures to elect a new Parliament speaker, ending on Aug. 13. The process of the presidential election will follow on Aug. 15, starting with 10 days of candidacy applications. The first round of the presidential election will start on Aug. 25, and the election will conclude on Sept. 13 at the latest.
At this point, there are two possibilities. An inter-party consensus might be ensured in the post-election Parliament, and the new president might be elected in line with the provisions of the current Constitution. In this case, a new constitutional amendment might be passed, thus closing the way to a referendum on the popular vote amendment. If this doesn't happen and the provisions for presidential elections aren't changed, we will hold a referendum on Oct. 21 on this constitutional change. If the referendum is passed, nothing will change, either. As the new president will already have taken office, the new procedures won't apply for seven years, which his term ends.
What would happen if the second possibility occurs - in other words, if a party with at least 174 deputies which didn't like the results of the July 22 elections wants to try its luck in new general elections and doesn't want to reach a consensus and so blocks the presidential election process? Under the Constitution, if the presidential election produces no winner in one month, early general elections will be triggered. The lifespan of the new post-election Parliament would then be cut short on Sept. 13. This situation could be avoided if the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) calls Parliament to an extraordinary session before July 22 and passes without change a law shortening the preparation period before referendums. If this is done, the referendum will take place in the first week of September, thus stopping the presidential election process. Thus, the public would elect the next president with a two-round election, and Parliament would avoid early general elections. Otherwise, a new election marathon would be triggered. The constitutional referendum would take place in late October, and general elections would follow less than a month later. Then the first and second round of the presidential election would be held. In other words, voters might go to the ballot box as many as five times this year. Of course, if the constitutional referendum or one of the presidential election rounds is held simultaneously with the general elections, this number will fall to four.